Ethiopia’s Somali Region: Threat of Renewed Insurgency Amidst Unmet Peace Promises

The ONLF warns of a potential return to armed conflict in Ethiopia’s Somali region due to unmet conditions of the 2018 peace agreement. Chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi highlighted the government’s violations, including political repression and economic marginalization. This situation reflects broader issues of systemic neglect and entrenched corruption, threatening national stability and exacerbating ethnic divisions under the Prosperity Party’s centralized rule.

The situation in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State is precarious, as the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) threatens to revisit armed conflict due to unmet conditions of the 2018 peace deal with the federal government. ONLF Chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi (Maaday) expressed concerns regarding the government’s violation of the agreement and its failure to permit the ONLF to engage in political activities autonomously. This deterioration of relations reflects deeper issues of systemic neglect, economic marginalization, and entrenched corruption in the region, casting a shadow over Ethiopia’s federal system under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The ONLF emerged in 1984, driven by the historic suppression of Somali self-determination and exploitation of the Ogaden Basin’s resources. Its guerrilla campaign against Addis Abeba’s extractive policies highlighted the region’s deprivation, leading to violent state responses exemplified by counterinsurgency campaigns that displaced many civilians. Despite the 2018 peace deal intended to establish reconciling measures, the federal government’s indifference undermined its success, leaving the community without much-needed integration or political engagement.

The centralization of power under the Prosperity Party has resulted in the erosion of Ethiopia’s promises of federalism. The Somali Regional Administration, now viewed as corrupt and repressive, has barred opposition parties and stifled political discourse, provoking discontent among the populace. The irony lies in a resource-rich region that remains impoverished, while elites profit, exacerbating perceptions of internal colonialism.

Ethiopia’s tactics of co-optation and coercion have further alienated the ONLF, leading to public declarations of hostility from government officials. This strategy aimed to divide the ONLF by supporting splinter factions but faltered against the group’s enduring grassroots support. The ONLF’s departure from the National Dialogue Commission signals a significant shift in political dynamics that may rekindle conflict.

The current landscape in the Somali region reflects deep structural inequities that have fueled civil unrest among youth in cities like Kebri Dehar and Jigjiga. Social media campaigns have transformed local grievances into broader advocacy, indicating a shift towards a transnational struggle against authoritarianism. The ONLF has leveraged these networks to revive its fight against what it perceives as an oppressive regime, despite its diminished military capacity.

To avert an outbreak of violence, the Ethiopian government must prioritize reviving the 2018 peace agreement, addressing systemic corruption, and ensuring regional autonomy. The integration of ex-combatants remains critically low, raising skepticism about federal intentions. Heightened international interest and pressure could enhance governmental accountability and facilitate dialogue.

Ethiopia faces an existential threat; any resurgence of conflict could exacerbate tensions with neighboring regions, disrupt vital trade, and invite instability from terrorist groups. Chairman Maaday’s warning underscores the urgency of addressing historical grievances through dialogue rather than repression. The future of Ethiopia hinges on dismantling exclusionary policies and addressing the Somali people’s concerns, thus laying a necessary foundation for national reconciliation.

The escalating tensions in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State are indicative of a broader systemic crisis exacerbated by unmet peace deal commitments. The ONLF’s resurgence taps into historical grievances, asserting the need for equitable resource distribution, political autonomy, and genuine inclusivity. Ethnic divisions and centralized governance under the Prosperity Party risk further destabilization. To avoid renewed conflict and pave the way for reconciliation, the federal government must undertake actionable reforms while fostering dialogue with all stakeholders in the region.

Original Source: addisstandard.com