Ethiopia’s Dangerous Descent: The Road to War with Eritrea After the Siege of Tigray

This article discusses the growing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regime, highlighting historical ethnic divisions and the strategical use of conflict as a means to consolidate power amidst internal dissent. It emphasizes the potential ramifications for regional stability, especially in light of the violent history of the Tigray War, and underscores the need for diplomatic engagement to mitigate impending crises.

Ethiopia is facing a potential escalation towards conflict with Eritrea, as the specter of historical imperial ambitions reemerges under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Abiy’s aggressive rhetoric regarding Eritrea’s coastline raises significant concerns regarding regional stability in the Horn of Africa, indicating that rekindled hostilities are increasingly likely.

Despite presenting himself as a reformer, Abiy Ahmed is reinforcing authoritarian control amidst rising internal dissent fueled by Ethiopia’s historical ethnic divisions. The narrative that ethnic fragmentation is a recent development neglects Ethiopia’s long-standing societal divides and shifts blame unfairly towards previous administrations for current tensions. Abiy’s strategy reflects a desperation to maintain power rather than genuine national unity.

Armed conflict with Eritrea may serve as a strategy for Abiy to consolidate control, redirect focus from internal issues, and suppress opposition under the guise of national security. With pressure escalating within Ethiopia, the prospect of conflict presents an opportunity for Abiy to unify disparate nationalist factions at the risk of plunging the region into deeper turmoil.

The implications of a renewed war are profound, threatening to escalate violence across the Horn of Africa, which is already facing instability due to ongoing crises in neighboring Sudan and South Sudan. Eritrea’s rigid, isolated regime, while disinterested in initiating combat, has the capacity to respond forcefully if provoked, further complicating the precarious situation.

Compounding the issue, the previous Tigray War illustrates the lengths both Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki will go to eliminate threats to their regimes, even at the cost of significant human suffering. The devastating aftermath of the Tigray siege exemplifies the brutal calculation that drives these authoritarian leaders, underscoring the existential challenges facing the Tigrayan population.

Despite the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement marking the end of the Tigray siege, unresolved tensions continue with the Tigray Defense Forces still poised as a significant threat to Abiy’s governance. The agreement did not neutralize internal opposition but rather intensified enmity, leaving the Tigrayans in a vulnerable and humiliated position, further complicating future relations between Eritrea and Tigray.

Abiy and Afewerki’s strategic partnership deeply entwines their political survival with regional outcomes, with Eritrea forsaking national interest for personal power prolongation under Afewerki. As Eritrea faces severe domestic issues, the desire for territorial ambition raises crucial questions regarding the regime’s true alignment with the Eritrean populace’s interests.

Eritrea’s evolution as a nation under Afewerki has led many to question his true motivations amidst Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions. With tension mounting, the international community must recognize the importance of diplomatic engagement to preclude escalating conflict, grappling with the reality that both leaders may initiate destructive warfare while deflecting from domestic failings.

In conclusion, Ethiopia’s trajectory towards potential war with Eritrea is complex and deeply rooted in historical ethnic fragmentation and power struggles. Abiy Ahmed’s regime continues to manipulate nationalist sentiments for political survival, risking wider regional destabilization. With the backdrop of the Tigray crisis still fresh, the international community must remain vigilant and proactive to prevent further escalation and address the underlying tensions that could ignite a catastrophic conflict.

Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu