Peru Central Bank Predicts 4% Economic Growth for January

Peru’s central bank forecasts a 4% economic growth for January, indicating recovery after a recession. Despite potential U.S. tariffs causing uncertainty in manufacturing and agriculture, the mining sector is less likely to be affected. The central bank maintains interest rates at 4.75% amid stable inflation indicators, aiming for continued economic growth.

Peru’s central bank reports an anticipated economic growth of 4% for January. Adrian Armas, the chief economist, confirmed this projection aligns with analysts’ expectations as the government prepares to release the official monthly figure. The nation has been recovering from a recession experienced in 2023, which saw a contraction of 0.4%. After a growth of 3.3% in the previous year, the government’s outlook for 2025 is optimistic, aiming for a growth rate of around 4%, positioning Peru among the fastest-growing economies in the region.

In terms of the impact of potential U.S. tariffs, Armas expressed that any effects on Peru’s economy would likely be minimal. He highlighted that sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture might face some uncertainty due to these tariffs. Concerning the mining sector, particularly the red metal suppliers, potential tariffs are not expected to significantly impact exporters, who can pivot to offer their commodities in other markets. However, Armas noted that ongoing uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies are contributing to a volatile global economic climate.

Furthermore, Armas commented on the central bank’s decision to maintain a key interest rate of 4.75%, which has remained stable since the beginning of the year. This rate is perceived as being in a neutral range while inflation indicators remain within the bank’s targeted levels, signaling a cautious yet stable economic environment in Peru.

In summary, Peru’s economy is showing signs of resilience with an expected growth of 4% in January, supported by recovery from a previous recession. Despite potential challenges from U.S. tariffs, the central bank remains committed to a stable policy, maintaining the interest rate and addressing uncertainties in key sectors. The direction of Peru’s economy reflects a positive outlook for further growth in the upcoming years, potentially solidifying its position as a leader in regional economic expansion.

Original Source: money.usnews.com