Libya: The Geopolitical Battleground for U.S. and Russia

Donald Trump’s geopolitical stance contrasts with traditional alliances as U.S.-Russia rivalry continues in Libya. The U.S. aims to weaken Russian influence by courting General Khalifa Haftar, yet skepticism surrounds this strategy given Russia’s growing presence. While some hope for U.S.-Libya ties, caution prevails about the administration’s commitment amid competing interests.

Recent geopolitical dynamics have shifted, with Donald Trump expressing a desire to engage with Vladimir Putin while undermining traditional U.S. alliances. However, Libya remains a focal point of competition between the U.S. and Russia, reminiscent of Cold War tensions, as both nations vie for influence within the country. Recently, the U.S. conducted a training mission featuring a B-52 bomber to persuade local leaders to oust the rising number of Russian troops stationed in Libya.

The primary aim of the U.S. visit was to persuade General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the eastern region of Libya, to distance himself from Russian affiliations. This visit followed Haftar’s engagement with Belarus, demonstrating his increasing ties with Moscow. Jalel Harchaoui from the RUSI think tank remarked on the challenges facing U.S. diplomacy, highlighting that it has struggled to devise a comprehensive strategy to counteract the influence of Russia in Libya historically.

While the Pentagon continues to foster military relationships in Libya, Haftar appears to be caught between the two powers. Despite offers of military support from the U.S., Haftar has stated that the capabilities provided by Russia, such as air defenses and military training, are enticing. The ongoing presence of Russian forces has noticeably increased, with approximately 450 stationed at the Brak al-Shati airbase, marking a significant rise since late last year.

Experts have differing views on Haftar’s potential pivot away from Russia. Ben Fishman from the Washington Institute expressed skepticism, arguing that U.S. military strategies might not sway Haftar, who relies more heavily on his military than on militia forces in western Libya. Conversely, Mohamed Eljarh from Libya Outlook highlighted that Haftar’s son, Saddam, is actively pursuing a closer relationship with the United States, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Despite these developments, analysts indicate an uncertain future for U.S.-Libyan relations under the Trump administration. Umberto Profazio noted a lack of clear signals from the administration regarding Libya’s evolving dynamics and suggested that the U.S. may inadvertently allow Russia’s influence to persist in the region. This situation underscores the volatility of international relations as both world powers navigate their interests in Libya.

In summary, Libya is a critical arena for competition between the United States and Russia, where both nations are striving to consolidate their influence. Despite ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts, local dynamics under General Haftar and the increasing presence of Russian forces pose significant challenges. As developments unfold, the engagement of Haftar’s son with the U.S. may shape future U.S. policy towards Libya, although uncertainty remains regarding the Trump administration’s approach to the region.

Original Source: www.defensenews.com