Ethiopia and Eritrea: Rising Tensions and the Threat of War

Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated, with potential for renewed conflict stemming from instability in Tigray. The 2019 peace agreement is under threat due to Eritrea’s exclusion from negotiations and emerging dissident factions. Military mobilizations increase fears of confrontation, reflecting a complex history of war and diplomatic relations between the two nations.

The tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea has escalated, raising alarms among officials and regional analysts regarding the potential for renewed conflict. Such a war would signify a major setback to the peace process initiated by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in 2019. Analysts warn that this renewed hostilities could precipitate another humanitarian catastrophe in the already fragile Horn of Africa.

Recent instability in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has reignited fears of war. The civil war from 2020 to 2022 led to substantial loss of life, and while a peace agreement was reached in late 2022, key players like Eritrea were excluded from the negotiations. This exclusion has fostered a rift, particularly following the emergence of a dissident faction in Tigray that has taken control of strategic areas, accusing the interim administration of betrayal.

As tensions rose, Eritrea initiated military mobilization and Ethiopia positioned troops near the border. Diplomatic communications have remained unresponsive, leaving the situation volatile. Each party denies the other’s claims, and the stand-off might lead to direct confrontations as accusations of collaboration and betrayal abound within Tigray.

Historically, Eritrea fought a protracted war for independence from Ethiopia, which was achieved in 1993. Initially, relations were amicable until territorial disputes led to a bloody conflict from 1998 to 2000. Diplomatic relations were improved in 2018, allowing for economic cooperation and family reunification, but the relationship soured considerably during the recent Tigray conflict.

The signing of the Pretoria Agreement excluded Eritrea from peace talks related to Tigray, further aggravating tensions. Eritrean officials have been reported to express concerns regarding Ethiopia’s statements about accessing the sea, interpreting them as threats. Subsequent events, including the suspension of Ethiopian Airlines flights and a security pact between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia, have indicated the deteriorating state of relations between the two nations.

In summary, the risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea stems from complex historical tensions, recent political developments, and territorial disputes exacerbated by the Tigray situation. The current military mobilizations and accusations between the two nations signal a troubling path that could destabilize the region further. Thus, it is crucial to monitor these developments closely to avert a humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa.

Original Source: ntvkenya.co.ke