Urgent Call to Prevent Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict Amid Rising Tensions

Tensions are escalating between Ethiopia and Eritrea, raising fears of a renewed conflict following the fragile ceasefire established in 2022. Internal power struggles within Tigray, driven by the influence of the TPLF, coupled with regional geopolitical rivalries, complicate the situation. Immediate diplomatic intervention is essential to avert potential devastation in the Horn of Africa.

The situation in the Horn of Africa, particularly the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, is precarious, as recent military mobilizations suggest the risk of renewed conflict. A cessation of hostilities was established in late 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition, concluding one of the bloodiest wars in recent history. The Pretoria Agreement aimed to stabilize Tigray through an interim administration, yet this initiative stands on the brink of failure as political divisions stir potential violence once more.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has historically been influential in Ethiopian politics, but its power has waned since the ascension of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Internal power struggles have emerged within Tigray, particularly between the TPLF and leaders of the interim administration, creating tensions within the Tigrayan Defense Forces. Assassinations and coups are increasingly plausible as competing factions vie for influence.

Regional tensions are exacerbated by wider geopolitical rivalries, especially involving Gulf states interested in asserting control over the Red Sea. With historical grievances, Ethiopia and Eritrea, once allies against the TPLF, now mistrust each other. Accusations and fears of territorial ambitions over the Red Sea contribute to a highly volatile situation, as both nations mobilize their militaries in anticipation of conflict.

The implications of renewed warfare would extend far beyond the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea, as existing crises, like the civil war in Sudan and instability in South Sudan, are interconnected. The potential for a larger conflict that draws in Middle Eastern powers and other global interests cannot be overlooked. The deterioration of the political landscape could lead to broader anarchy and unpredictability across the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.

To avert impending conflict, it is essential for Gulf states, in alliance with the African Union, to exert diplomatic pressure on the involved parties. A coordinated call for de-escalation may provide the necessary window for meaningful negotiations, enabling local, regional, and international stakeholders to address the complex issues at play. Should these efforts fail, the consequences could escalate into chaos, leading to humanitarian disasters and further destabilization in an already fragile region.

In summary, the potential for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms large amid ongoing political divisions and military mobilizations. The historical context of the TPLF, coupled with regional geopolitical rivalries, exacerbates the fragile situation. Immediate diplomatic intervention from influential Gulf states and the African Union is critical to prevent escalation. Failure to address these tensions may result in extensive instability across the Horn of Africa, impacting humanitarian conditions and geopolitical dynamics throughout the Red Sea region.

Original Source: foreignpolicy.com