South Sudan on the Verge of All-Out War Amid Escalating Violence and Tensions

South Sudan faces escalating conflict as renewed fighting emerges among forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, threatening the 2018 peace deal. Recent military incidents, harsh government actions against opposition leaders, and Uganda’s military intervention contribute to both increased tensions and humanitarian crises. Economic instability exacerbates the volatility, making the situation ripe for further violence and complicating efforts for meaningful resolution.

Recent weeks have seen an alarming escalation of violence in South Sudan, particularly in the Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states. Renewed hostilities have primarily erupted between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar’s opposition, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO). Following a military base attack that resulted in the arrest of several high-ranking Machar allies, the fragile stability provided by the 2018 peace deal is in jeopardy. This agreement had previously halted a brutal civil war that claimed over 400,000 lives.

The government has accused Machar of collaborating with the White Army—a militia group primarily composed of the Neur ethnic group, of which Machar is a part—following a violent attack on March 4. This incident has significantly heightened tensions between the opposing factions. Compounding these issues, a subsequent UN rescue mission for a Dinka commander resulted in a tragedy, further straining the fragile political landscape.

In February, South Sudan saw violent protests following President Kiir’s unilateral reshuffle of key government roles, which violated the 2018 peace agreement. The dismissals, perceived as a “soft coup,” were interpreted as an effort to consolidate Kiir’s power amid increasing regional unrest, especially in the Nasir region. Ethnic tensions have reignited, particularly as Kiir’s reshuffle appeared to favor the Dinka ethnic group, further complicating the already contentious political climate.

On March 11, Uganda deployed special forces to Juba to support Kiir’s administration, sharing a northern border with South Sudan. While this intervention aims to prevent regional instability, it risks exacerbating existing tensions and may hinder potential peace dialogues. The deployment of Ugandan troops has historically not resolved the deeper political conflicts within South Sudan.

Economic pressures and external conflicts have also played a critical role in fueling unrest in South Sudan. The ongoing clashes between Sudanese forces, combined with significant refugee inflows and a fiscal crisis resulting from lost oil revenues, contribute to mounting societal distress. The conflict fundamentally undermines President Kiir’s ability to maintain control and support his patronage network.

Centralized control of oil revenues remains a significant source of ethnic strife, as President Kiir’s administration allocates resources primarily to the Dinka-dominated South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF). These practices have exacerbated ethnic divisions, particularly through the discriminatory distribution of contracts, leading to increased violence between groups and overall societal instability.

The conflict has predominantly manifested along Dinka-Nuer lines, with systematic ethnic violence and forced displacement. Experts worry that future escalations could lead to communal massacres, particularly in ethnically diverse areas such as Malakal. The precarious situation is underscored by widespread disillusionment among South Sudanese citizens, with a significant percentage in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. The postponed elections only exacerbate the uncertainty regarding the country’s future governance and stability.

The escalating violence in South Sudan signals a troubling trajectory for the nation’s stability, with renewed ethnic tensions, political unrest, and economic pressure compounding the risk of all-out war. The fragile power-sharing agreement established in 2018 is increasingly at risk, further jeopardizing the humanitarian situation and the potential for democratic governance. Without significant intervention to address the underlying issues, the cycle of violence and retaliatory measures is likely to persist, threatening not only South Sudan but also potentially destabilizing the broader region.

Original Source: thesoufancenter.org