South Sudan Approaches the Brink of All-Out War Amid Rising Tensions

Insecurity in South Sudan has surged, marked by intensified fighting between President Salva Kiir’s and Vice President Riek Machar’s forces. The recent arrest of Machar’s allies and government accusations of militia collaboration threaten the 2018 peace agreement. Economic pressures from conflicts in neighboring Sudan further destabilize South Sudan, creating a risk of ethnic violence and humanitarian crises amid deteriorating governance and prolonged delays in democratic elections.

In recent weeks, South Sudan has witnessed a surge in insecurity, marked by intensified combat in Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal. This fighting stems from an escalation of skirmishes between the forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. The government accuses Machar and his followers of collaborating with the White Army militia, leading to several arrests among Machar’s allies and significantly heightening tensions in the region.

The ongoing conflict puts the fragile 2018 peace agreement at risk, a pact that ended a brutal civil war resulting in over 400,000 deaths. Recently, government troops surrounded Machar’s residence, further exacerbating the ongoing tensions. The fragile peace had maintained a delicate balance, preventing a return to civil war; however, current hostilities threaten the stability that has been achieved since the agreement.

The government’s claims that Machar is linked to the White Army, particularly following a deadly attack on a military base, have aggravated the situation. The military intervention aimed at rescuing a Dinka commander ended in tragedy, leading to several casualties. These incidents have tangled the already complex ethnic rivalry into a more severe conflict environment.

In February, President Kiir’s unilateral cabinet reshuffle incited violent protests, further destabilizing Western Bahr el-Ghazal. This reshuffle, perceived as a power consolidation move ahead of elections, dismissed key government officials. Residents viewed this as a violation of the power-sharing principles set by the peace agreement, thus reigniting ethnic tensions that have long pervaded South Sudan.

Amidst this turbulence, Uganda’s military presence in Juba highlights regional concerns for stability. Though Uganda aims to mitigate conflict spillover, their involvement may only exacerbate the issues as it supports the existing government against opposition forces. This situation could complicate any future opportunities for dialogue and peaceful resolutions.

Economic strains stemming from the conflict in neighboring Sudan have further aggravated South Sudan’s instability, which has suffered catastrophic impacts on oil revenues and food supply. Economic pressures have significantly strained the nation’s economy, compounding public discontent and reviving ethnic tensions as various groups vie for limited resources, particularly oil.

The conflict’s roots lie in political elites exploiting ethnic identities for personal gain. President Kiir’s control of oil revenues has led to a system perceived as favoring the Dinka group while systematically excluding other ethnicities, notably the Nuer. This pattern has fostered resentment and violence, delaying efforts for reconciliation and sustainable peace.

Unlike prior conflicts, the latest violence is increasingly characterized by ethnic-based attacks that have seen broad patterns of murder, sexual violence, and forced displacements rooted deep in community divisions. Experts caution that further escalation, particularly around key cities like Malakal, could ignite widespread communal violence that may destabilize much of the country.

A significant proportion of the population lacks adequate humanitarian support, with 69 percent in urgent need of assistance. The prospective collapse of the current regime, alongside the fragility of the 2018 agreement, raises fears of renewed atrocities and a further descent into regional militia warfare. The postponement of elections, previously rescheduled multiple times, also raises doubts about democratic progression in South Sudan.

The current state in South Sudan highlights the severe risks of escalating conflict, largely driven by ethnic rivalries and political instability. The fragility of the peace agreement from 2018 hangs in the balance, and the resurgence of violence not only threatens the country’s fragile structure but could lead to humanitarian crises and regional instability. As national and international entities struggle to forge a path to peace, the volatile situation underscores the urgency for an effective resolution and genuine reconciliation among the diverse ethnic groups in South Sudan.

Original Source: thesoufancenter.org