Rising Violence in South Sudan: A Threat to Fragile Peace

South Sudan is experiencing increased violence, particularly in Upper Nile state, due to escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. Recent arrests among Machar’s allies, ongoing clashes, and economic crisis resulting from the conflict in Sudan threaten to destabilize the precarious peace achieved since 2018. The potential for widespread conflict rises amid significant corruption and ineffective governance.

The recent conflict in Sudan has led to increased violence in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state, threatening the fragile peace established by a 2018 agreement. Internal divisions and rampant corruption exacerbate the situation, risking stability within the nation.

Tensions have escalated between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, evidenced by the recent arrests of several of Machar’s allies, including the oil minister, during unrest in Juba. The National Security Service of South Sudan reported arrests of individuals associated with heightened military confrontations.

Fighting has intensified since mid-February between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and the youth-based armed group known as the “White Army,” which supports Machar. A significant incident involved a U.N. helicopter under fire during a rescue mission, resulting in the deaths of a general and 27 soldiers, highlighting the gravity of the situation which has displaced many and injured dozens, according to Human Rights Watch.

The 2018 peace agreement concluded a brutal civil war between Kiir and Machar, which claimed nearly 400,000 lives and displaced 4 million. However, the stability achieved is now jeopardized by the ongoing civil war in Sudan that began in April 2023, which has significant economic repercussions for South Sudan.

The International Crisis Group notes that South Sudan, reliant on oil exports, suffered substantial revenue losses after an attack near Khartoum damaged a crucial pipeline. This economic downturn has created a budget crisis for Kiir’s government, diminishing his ability to maintain power and support for his network.

The military junta in Sudan has historically manipulated South Sudan’s ethnic divisions, raising concerns that conflicts between the Dinka and Nuer communities may worsen. The United Nations and various organizations have expressed concern that rising tensions could lead to widespread violence, with the Human Rights Commission in South Sudan accusing elite leaders of fueling instability.

Yasmin Sooka, chair of the U.N. Commission, critiqued the leadership for failing to address the people’s needs and perpetuating violent struggles for power. Increased dissatisfaction with Kiir and Machar’s leadership could further destabilize the region, potentially transforming South Sudan into a refuge for militias and criminal activities if the situation deteriorates further.

The situation in South Sudan is precarious, with rising tensions between government leaders and ongoing violence threatening previously established peace. The decline in economic stability due to the conflict in Sudan exacerbates internal issues, potentially leading to widespread conflict. If effective governance and stability are not achieved, South Sudan risks becoming a battleground for militias, further undermining the safety and well-being of its citizens.

Original Source: international.la-croix.com