Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on Gaborone’s Severe Flooding

In February 2025, severe flooding in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa led to at least 31 fatalities and displaced over 5,000 individuals. The flooding, exacerbated by rapid urbanization and inadequate drainage systems, revealed vulnerabilities in infrastructure. Studies indicate that human-induced climate change likely intensified the heavy rainfall, prompting ongoing efforts to enhance flood resilience through improved urban planning and infrastructure upgrades.

In mid-February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa endured heavy rainfall, resulting in catastrophic flooding that claimed at least 31 lives, with significant casualties in Gaborone, Botswana, and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. This deluge displaced over 5,000 individuals, disrupted transportation, and forced the suspension of all government schools in Botswana. Critical infrastructure in both nations suffered grievously as flooding severely limited access and overwhelmed emergency response capabilities.

An investigation, involving scientists from various countries, sought to determine how human-induced climate change influenced the likelihood of the heavy rainfall that led to the flooding. The study focused on the region’s maximum rainfall over five days, amid concerns that urbanization may have increased vulnerability to flooding events.

Historically, Gaborone frequently experiences flooding during the rainy season, exacerbated by rapid urbanization and population growth. Consequently, the city’s drainage systems are inadequate, particularly in low-lying areas that are highly prone to flooding. The February 2025 event, characterized as rare in today’s climate, has a return period of 40 years, indicating a 2-3% probability of occurrence in any given year.

Analysis of weather data reveals a significant upward trend in extreme rainfall events, correlating with climate change. It is estimated that the intensity of the February 2025 rainfall event would have been 60% less likely in a colder climate. However, climate models yield varied results regarding the influence of climate change on extreme rainfall, making it challenging to ascertain an exact quantification.

Models predicting a 2.6 °C increase in temperatures project a notable rise in the intensity of heavy rainfall events by 2025. The current trends suggest that human-induced climate change has contributed to greater rainfall intensity, yet quantifying this impact specifically remains uncertain. Additionally, past infrastructure development failures have intensified flooding impacts, disrupting essential services, particularly in urban locations.

Efforts to enhance flood resilience are underway, focusing on improved drainage, thoughtful land-use planning, and disaster-response initiatives. Strategies include expanding drainage systems, implementing zoning regulations to prevent development in high-risk regions, and upgrading essential infrastructure to adapt to both current and future climatic conditions. A comprehensive urban planning approach is essential to fortify resilience against future extreme weather events.

In conclusion, the floods resulting from heavy rainfall in February 2025 have underscored the significant challenges posed by climate change and rapid urbanization in Gaborone and surrounding areas. While human-induced climate change likely intensified the rainfall, the inadequate drainage infrastructure further magnified the disaster’s impacts. Ongoing resilience initiatives aimed at improving urban planning and disaster preparedness are crucial to safeguarding communities against future extreme climate events.

Original Source: www.worldweatherattribution.org