Ethiopia and Eritrea: Rising Tensions and Impending Conflict Warning

Ethiopian and Eritrean officials warn of escalating tensions that could lead to war, risking humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa. A division within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front has heightened fears of conflict, with both nations increasing military readiness. Historical grievances complicate relations amid recent agreements between Eritrea and other nations aimed at countering Ethiopian ambitions. Diplomatic efforts are crucial to avoid escalation.

Ethiopia and Eritrea may be on the brink of war, as officials from Tigray have indicated that tensions between the two nations are escalating. This conflict risks triggering a humanitarian disaster in the Horn of Africa, potentially reversing the historic peace established when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Analysts are concerned that such hostilities could involve further regional powers, exacerbating existing crises in areas affected by conflict including Sudan and Somalia.

General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a vice president in Tigray’s interim administration, warned in the Africa Report that hostilities could erupt imminently. The Ethiopian civil war from 2020 to 2022 resulted in significant loss of life, with hundreds of thousands reportedly killed. The recent concerns are fueled by a division within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that has formed factions supporting opposing stances toward the Ethiopian government, leading to recent territorial seizures by dissidents.

Getachew Reda, Tigray’s interim administration leader, has expressed concern for innocent civilians, stating the potential for the Tigray people to once again suffer due to a conflict they do not support. Meanwhile, the central Ethiopian government has remained silent on the tensions, while Eritrea’s information minister denounced the warnings as unfounded.

Eritrea has ordered nationwide military mobilization, while Ethiopia has reportedly deployed troops near the Eritrean border. Experts Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos assert that the situation in Tigray resembles “dry tinder waiting for a match,” with conditions ripe for renewed conflict. Historically, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been turbulent, marked by a long independence conflict and a border war that occurred from 1998 to 2000.

Although peace was established in 2018, the cooling relations stem from Eritrea’s exclusion from peace negotiations and public remarks by Ethiopian officials suggesting military aspirations regarding sea access. Furthermore, Eritrea’s recent security agreements with Egypt and Somalia appear to signal a united front against perceived Ethiopian aggression.

The unfolding dynamics indicate an urgent need for intervention to prevent further escalation in this volatile region, highlighting the complexities of peacekeeping in the context of historical grievances and territorial disputes.

The warning signs of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea are stark, with the potential for significant humanitarian crises looming should hostilities erupt. Historical animosities continue to influence current events, exacerbated by political divisions and public statements that allude to military action. The situation remains precarious, underscoring a critical need for diplomatic efforts to avert conflict and promote stability within the Horn of Africa.

Original Source: www.usnews.com