Escalating Violence in South Sudan: A Result of Internal and External Pressures

South Sudan is facing increased violence, particularly in Upper Nile state, influenced by internal political rivalries and the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Key figures, President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, are at odds, resulting in arrests and military confrontations. The country’s fragile peace is at risk, prompting fears of widespread turmoil and governance failure.

South Sudan is experiencing a notable surge in violence, particularly in its Upper Nile state, attributed to internal divisions exacerbated by the spillover effects of the continuing conflict in neighboring Sudan. The fragile peace established by a 2018 agreement is now under significant threat due to these escalating tensions.

Renewed discord primarily arises between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, whose rivalry has intensified recently. Law enforcement has arrested several of Machar’s associates, including the oil minister, in response to growing unrest in Juba linked to clashes in the northeast region.

Conflict in Upper Nile has seen skirmishes erupt since mid-February, involving the South Sudanese army (SSPDF) allied with local militias against the “White Army,” an armed youth group supporting Machar. A recent incident involving a U.N. helicopter resulted in the deaths of a general and 27 soldiers amid rescue efforts, significantly escalating the conflict and leading to thousands of displacements and numerous injuries.

Despite a peace agreement in 2018 that ended a devastating civil war, the resurgence of violence is largely influenced by the conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023. The economic ramifications have been severe for South Sudan, particularly due to reduced oil revenues following damage to crucial pipelines near Khartoum, thereby exacerbating the state’s budget crisis and undermining Kiir’s authority.

The situation remains precarious for South Sudan, a nation marked by deep corruption and reliance on oil, yet plagued by widespread poverty. Warnings from international organizations, including Human Rights Watch, indicate that rising tensions could precipitate extensive violence. A recent U.N. report criticized the political elite for exacerbating instability through their struggles for power.

As frustrations increase over the entrenched power of Kiir and Machar, coupled with inadequate government services, South Sudan faces a rising risk of collapse, potentially transforming the region into a refuge for militias and illegal activities, according to warnings from the International Crisis Group.

In summary, South Sudan is confronting a critical juncture marked by escalating violence fueled by political rivalry and external conflict influences. The fragile peace supported by the 2018 agreement is at significant risk, intensifying concerns surrounding stability, governance failures, and the potential for widespread chaos. The international community must closely monitor the situation and engage in effective dialogue to avert a deepening crisis.

Original Source: international.la-croix.com