Dry Weather Poses Risks to Brazil’s Sugarcane Crop for 2025/26 Harvest

Brazil’s sugarcane crop is threatened by dry weather, with forecasts indicating declining production for the 2025/26 season. While some firms predict modest decreases, others expect significant reductions due to poor growth conditions exacerbated by previous droughts and fires. The situation in various regions demonstrates uneven impacts, emphasizing the critical need for sufficient rainfall in the upcoming months.

In Brazil, the prospects for the upcoming sugarcane harvest for the 2025/26 season are being increasingly overshadowed by dry weather conditions. Following previous droughts and fires, the lack of rainfall in February and early March is further straining an already vulnerable crop. The situation remains precarious, with forecasts differing amongst experts regarding the future output of sugarcane.

Consultancy firm Datagro predicts a slight decline in sugarcane production to 612 million tonnes, reflecting a 1.4% decrease from the current season. Conversely, Hedgepoint estimates a more favorable harvest of 630 million tonnes, citing improved soil moisture conditions. However, Carlos Mello from Hedgepoint cautions that potential dryness from March to May could impact yields negatively.

In stark contrast, trading firm Sucden forecasts a production range between 590 million and 600 million tonnes, reflecting a cautious outlook. José Guilherme Nogueira, president of Orplana, points to a minimum expected decline of 15%, stressing severe production challenges such as insufficient sprouting and stunted growth of sugarcane plants.

Issues persist even in plantations unaffected by previous wildfires, as some ratoon crops require replanting due to failure to regenerate. Areas like Jaú in São Paulo are particularly at risk, with Eduardo Romão noting significant growth delays ahead of critical evaluations for pre-maturation agents. He warns of a possible 25% drop in productivity in Jaú alone.

Elsewhere, while regions like Ribeirão Preto and Araçatuba face significant rainfall shortages, places such as Piracicaba have reported fewer issues. However, Luciano Ravanelli Ferreira from Baldin Bioenergia acknowledges that some decline in yields is expected, albeit not as drastic.

Datagro’s data highlights the stark rainfall deficits, with the Ribeirão Preto area experiencing a shortage of 26.5% below average and southern Minas Gerais seeing over 70% below expected precipitation. Although soil moisture levels remain adequate, they are significantly lower than the previous year. The first part of the harvest reveals a decline in productivity, with overall outcomes heavily dependent on April’s rainfall.

In summary, Brazil’s sugarcane sector is facing perilous conditions due to ongoing dry weather, leading to forecasts of potential declines in production. With varying predictions among market analysts and industry leaders, the impact of climate on crop health remains a central concern. The forthcoming months will be critical in determining the direction of Brazil’s sugarcane output as industry stakeholders brace for potential challenges ahead.

Original Source: valorinternational.globo.com