Averting Imminent Conflict: The Urgent Need for Diplomatic Intervention in Ethiopia and Eritrea

The article highlights the precarious political situation in Ethiopia and Eritrea, emphasizing the urgent need for intervention to prevent conflict. Following significant historical tensions and a faltering peace process, a potential war could have dire consequences for the Red Sea region and neighboring countries. Only proactive diplomatic measures from global powers can avert what may become a larger regional crisis.

The ongoing tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea has reached a critical stage, requiring urgent intervention from Gulf states and Western allies to avert an imminent conflict that could destabilize the entire Red Sea region. Following the cessation of hostilities agreement in late 2022, peace remains fragile as the Tigray interim administration, established under the Pretoria Agreement, faces significant challenges nearly two years post-agreement.

Historically, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been pivotal in Ethiopian politics since the 1990s, but internal rivalries and leadership struggles have emerged since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. The TPLF now contends with factions loyal to the interim administration, leading to severe discord within the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF) and contributing to rising hostilities.

As political chaos exacerbates the situation, the risk of an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms large, further igniting the unrest within the Horn of Africa. Current regional dynamics are influenced by Gulf rivalries and Ethiopia’s military alignment with the UAE, challenging the balance of power in the Red Sea.

Despite past military cooperation during the Tigray conflict, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have soured, undermining the integrity of the Pretoria Agreement. Accusations of Eritrea supporting insurgent groups within Ethiopia have heightened tensions, signaling a potential return to open conflict. The mobilization of troops from both nations indicates an escalation of preparedness for war, raising alarms about the potential ramifications beyond the initial conflict zone.

The current geopolitical environment complicates the landscape, as nations in the region grapple with lingering effects of external conflicts, including Sudan’s civil war. The geopolitical ramifications could be extensive, with a conflict in Tigray threatening to reverberate throughout northeastern Africa, imperiling the stability of the Red Sea province and igniting further altercations in neighboring countries.

Urgent diplomatic measures are necessary to address these escalating tensions. A strong coalition of Western and Gulf nations, along with the African Union, must galvanize efforts to prevent deterioration towards war, enabling dialogue and reconciliation between the conflicting parties. Effective, unified intervention is essential to mitigate the risk of unchecked aggression leading to a broader regional conflict, which could dwarf existing humanitarian crises.

In summary, the fragility of the current peace in the Tigray region signifies an urgent need for intervention to avert a potential war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The historical context, coupled with recent escalations in political strife and military mobilization, presents a precarious situation that could threaten regional stability. Multilateral efforts from Gulf states and Western allies, aligned with the African Union, are imperative to facilitate diplomatic resolution and prevent an outbreak of conflict that could further destabilize northeastern Africa and the Red Sea region.

Original Source: foreignpolicy.com