Urgent Diplomatic Action Required to Prevent Conflict in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa is facing potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly over Tigray. A peace agreement from 2022 is in jeopardy due to increasing tensions and rhetoric. The international community, especially the U.S. and EU, must intervene to preserve peace. Current developments reflect a shift in Ethiopia’s stance, raising fears of renewed violence that could destabilize the entire region.

The Horn of Africa is on the brink of renewed conflict, primarily between Ethiopia and Eritrea, focusing on the Tigray region. A peace agreement, the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) signed on November 3, 2022, has been jeopardized by rising tensions and incendiary rhetoric from various parties. The international community, particularly the U.S. and the European Union, must act promptly to prevent further escalation and preserve the fragile peace, which directly impacts regional stability and U.S. interests.

The COHA was a significant achievement that resulted from considerable pressure from Western nations and the Tigrayan diaspora, following severe losses that the Ethiopian forces suffered against the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). However, Ethiopia’s current government appears to be abandoning the agreement, facing issues such as its electoral board’s refusal to recognize the TPLF as a political party and the failure to reclaim territories seized in the war. The dire circumstances in Tigray heighten fears that the region may find itself embroiled in further conflict, despite the existing instability.

Following the Pretoria Agreement, tensions escalated between Ethiopia and Eritrea, driven by both countries’ ambitions. Eritrea’s leadership has openly called for the destruction of the TPLF, while Ethiopia seeks strategic alliances to counter perceived threats. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has voiced ambitions to secure access to the sea, further complicating matters.

Recent developments, such as the signing of the Ankara Accord and Eritrea’s mobilization of troops, signal a worrying downturn in relations between the two nations. Incendiary comments from Ethiopian officials serve to foster fear and create justifications for potential military action against Eritrea, complicating the narrative of a peaceful resolution.

The Ethiopian government recently admitted to the presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia, a statement that could have helped peace efforts but seems to instead frame the context for a possible military confrontation. Tigray finds itself entrapped between Ethiopian and Eritrean ambitions, exacerbated by national government actions that limit the political activities of TPLF and neglect the rights of Tigrayans.

The tactics employed by the Ethiopian government reflect a concerning pattern reminiscent of prior conflicts. There is a visible strategy to politicize institutions, further fragmenting TPLF’s influence while positioning diplomats to seek international acquiescence for potential military actions. Such developments could lead to a catastrophic war, not only for Ethiopia but for the larger region, threatening to destabilize neighboring countries and embolden extremist groups.

Global leaders must urgently engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate tensions and encourage all involved parties to seek nonviolent solutions. The last conflict had dire humanitarian implications; it is crucial to prevent history from repeating itself. The consequences of a renewed war would not only affect Ethiopia but could also destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and beyond, necessitating immediate and concerted efforts from the international community to avert disaster.

In summary, the escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea pose a severe threat to peace in the Horn of Africa. The Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement is at risk due to incendiary rhetoric and strategic ambitions from both governments. Immediate diplomatic intervention is essential to de-escalate the situation and prevent a conflict that could have devastating regional implications. The international community must prioritize stability in the region to avoid repeating the catastrophic consequences of past wars.

Original Source: www.ethiopia-insight.com