M23 and Rwanda: Redrawing Geopolitical Lines in the Great Lakes Region

The M23 militia has captured Goma and Bukavu in eastern DRC, supported by Rwanda, indicating a desire to alter the region’s geopolitical dynamics. The humanitarian impact is severe, and hostilities have increased tensions with neighboring Burundi. President Tshisekedi is losing control, and urgent international intervention is needed to prevent a broader conflict.

In late January and early February, the M23 militia seized Goma and Bukavu, the foremost cities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This Rwandan-backed rebel group now governs an extensive territory comparable to Connecticut, where it is establishing local authorities, demonstrating its and Rwanda’s intent to reshape the geopolitical landscape of Africa’s Great Lakes region.

The M23 rebellion initially arose in 2012 but was quelled in 2013, largely due to international intervention. While M23 claims to protect the Rwandophone community, particularly the Tutsi population, its interests align closely with those of Kigali. The establishment of the Alliance du Fleuve Congo (AFC), M23’s political wing, reflects a broader political goal of regime change in Kinshasa.

M23 resurged in November 2021 due primarily to the Congolese government’s failure to honor commitments to the militia veterans, including their integration into the national army. This resurgence is also attributable to Rwanda’s apprehensions regarding its interests, particularly considering the malevolent presence of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which poses a perceived security threat.

Kigali perceives eastern DRC as essential for its security and economy, particularly regarding gold, a significant Rwandan export sourced from DRC. Amid increasing military activities from neighboring Uganda and Burundi against their DRC-based insurgencies, Rwanda saw the necessity to mobilize M23. They seek a buffer zone and have historically doubted Kinshasa’s governance capabilities.

The humanitarian fallout from M23’s offensive is severe, with three million people displaced and thousands killed. A public health crisis looms amidst growing fears of a more extensive regional conflict.

Concern is rising in Burundi over potential conflict with Rwanda, exacerbated by accusations of mutual support of insurgents. Tensions have escalated as each nation closed border crossings and Burundi’s President Ndayishimiye urged citizens to prepare for war against Rwanda, labeled as an enemy.

Uganda also has vested interests in eastern DRC, particularly concerning gold imports, and maintains a fluctuating relationship with Rwanda. Reports indicate that Uganda has provided logistic support to M23 while simultaneously expanding its military presence in the DRC, highlighting its dual objectives in the region.

President Felix Tshisekedi’s governance is evidently waning, notably following the retreat of Burundian forces, critical military allies. With M23 advancing south towards Katanga, which holds significant industrial resources, the internal political dynamics are shifting, as groups mobilize in a climate of increasing ethnic and political tension.

The current situation mirrors the early stages of the Second Congolese war, where regional powers sought to partition DRC into areas of influence, leading to immense human suffering. Continued international pressure is crucial, as the U.S. previously employed this strategy effectively against Rwanda’s actions in 2012.

Tshisekedi’s appeals for renewed international pressure on Rwanda have yielded limited results, even after proposing agreements for military assistance in exchange for access to DRC’s mineral wealth. Despite attempts to engage the U.S. through various offers, the reception has been fragmented and perceived as desperate by American officials.

Under the Biden administration, the U.S. has notably condemned Rwanda’s support for M23, imposing sanctions on some individuals but not suspending development aid. The recent U.S. sanctioned sanctioning of key Rwandan officials could signal a shift, yet substantial pressure on Kigali is necessary to alter its support for M23.

The urgency for international action is escalating, as M23 consolidates power in eastern DRC, presenting an imminent threat of a broader and more destructive conflict in the Great Lakes region.

In summary, the resurgence of M23, supported by Rwanda, threatens to destabilize the Great Lakes region significantly. With key cities under M23 control and escalating humanitarian crises, regional conflicts with Burundi and Uganda further compound the complexities of the situation. Tshisekedi’s weakening position underscores the urgency for international intervention, reminiscent of past conflicts, as the potential for widespread violence increases. Engaging global powers is essential to restore stability in the DRC as tensions continue to mount.

Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org