The Evolution of Power in Syria: From Assad to al-Joulani

The article discusses the historical and political shift in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, citing the emergence of al-Joulani as the new leader. It highlights the internal challenges faced by the new regime, regional implications including shifts in Iranian and Turkish influence, and the importance of U.S. policy in shaping Syria’s future.

In 1965, British journalist Patrick Seale published “The Struggle for Syria,” arguing that Syria’s fragmented state allowed both regional and international actors to vie for power. The nation experienced significant instability, indicated by three coups d’état in 1949 alone and a brief union with Egypt as the United Arab Republic, before Hafez al-Assad eventually established his regime in 1971, offering both stability and oppression to the Syrian populace.

Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father Hafez in 2000. His reign initially showed promise, yet he faltered during the Arab Spring, leading to a devastating civil war. Although saved by Russian and Iranian intervention in 2015, his regime remained fractured, controlling only 60 percent of Syria post-conflict. The remaining territories were held by various groups, including Turkish forces and the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which became prominent in the Idlib Province under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Joulani after the original Al-Nusra Front was established by al-Qaeda.

Following the Assad regime’s restoration, efforts to invade Idlib were thwarted by Turkey due to fears of a refugee influx. In late 2024, an offensive by HTS led to a surprising military advance against Assad’s weakened structure, culminating in the capture of Aleppo and eventually Damascus. The regime fell, with Bashar al-Assad fleeing and al-Joulani taking the presidency, marking a significant shift in Syrian governance.

The overthrow of the Assad dynasty ends over five decades of Alawite dominance and presents new uncertainties regarding governance. Al-Joulani, once affiliated with al-Qaeda, has attempted to redefine his identity as a non-jihadi Islamist leader. However, international recognition remains elusive, particularly given U.S. terrorism designations still impacting HTS.

The new regime faces extensive challenges, including restoring unity among diverse Syrian communities and managing relationships with ethnic minorities like the Kurds and Alawites. The regional impact of the regime’s fall significantly undermines Iranian influence and complicates their strategic alliance with Hezbollah.

Turkey may emerge as the primary patron of the new regime, potentially replacing Iran as a regional power. This shift could enhance Turkey’s influence alongside its existing relationships with Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, other nations like Saudi Arabia are seeking engagement with the new leadership to foster pragmatic ties.

Israel remains cautiously observant, having taken control of strategic territories in the Golan Heights to mitigate threats from Syria. Al-Joulani’s current strategy includes avoiding confrontation over Israel while focusing on stabilizing his new government, although future negotiations over the Golan are uncertain.

The U.S. policy landscape during this period is critical, with the Biden Administration already engaging with the new regime in Damascus, while the Trump Administration shows ambivalence. U.S. troops in Syria have primarily supported Kurdish forces against the Islamic State, but a potential withdrawal would jeopardize the moderating influence on the al-Sharaa regime. Thus, U.S. involvement could significantly affect the broader regional dynamics and the prioritization of stability in Syria.

The struggles surrounding Syria have evolved significantly with the fall of the Assad regime and the emergence of al-Joulani’s leadership. This transition presents a unique set of challenges domestically and regionally, including the need for unity among diverse communities and managing influences from Iran and Turkey. As international dynamics shift, U.S. policy decisions are crucial for the stability of the new regime and the future of Syria in the Middle East.

Original Source: www.hoover.org