Critical Analysis of South Sudan’s Deteriorating Security Situation

South Sudan’s Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth downplayed concerns over the country’s instability, yet independent assessments reveal significant deterioration in security. The U.N. reported rising tensions, violence against personnel, foreign military involvement, militia activities, and a Level 4 travel advisory from the U.S. underscore the escalating crisis. The potential for renewed civil war looms amid political tensions and militia advances.

Michael Makuei Lueth, South Sudan’s Information Minister, has attempted to assuage fears regarding the nation’s stability, attributing such concerns to societal rumors and social media. However, this assertion is contradicted by multiple events and evaluations indicating a more precarious situation than he describes.

The United Nations (U.N.) has indicated a considerable deterioration in South Sudan’s circumstances, citing escalated tensions fueled by internal conflicts, particularly between factions aligned with President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. Furthermore, ongoing violations of the fragile 2018 peace agreement have been reported in regions like Upper Nile and Nasir, where clashes continue.

A notable incident occurred on March 7, when a U.N. helicopter involved in evacuating South Sudanese troops was attacked, leading to fatalities among U.N. personnel and South Sudanese soldiers, including a senior general. This tragic event underscores the persistent threats faced by those operating within the nation.

In response to worsening instability, the Ugandan military has deployed special forces to aid the South Sudanese government in securing Juba. This intervention signifies the high level of crisis, as foreign military assistance typically denotes a severe escalation.

Militia activity, particularly from the “White Army” associated with Machar’s factions, has intensified, exemplified by an attack on an army base in Nasir on March 4, which resulted in casualties and territorial gains for the militia. The political landscape remains fraught, with significant tensions between Kiir and Machar, including recent arrests of generals allied with Machar.

Furthermore, the U.S. Department of State has issued a Level 4 travel advisory for South Sudan, indicating a grave risk to safety. Americans are strongly discouraged from traveling to the region due to the ongoing armed conflict, with nonessential personnel advised to depart.

The International Crisis Group has echoed these concerns, stating that “Tensions are running dangerously high in South Sudan.” They foresee a potential resurgence of civil war, given the strategic control exerted by militias like the White Army and ongoing conflicts in areas like Upper Nile, which could impact neighboring Sudan.

In summary, Minister Lueth’s assurances of stability are starkly contradicted by multiple credible assessments. Reports from international organizations reveal a worsening security climate, characterized by escalating violence and significant political instability, raising alarms over a potential return to civil war. Furthermore, the deployment of foreign military forces and strict travel advisories only emphasize the gravity of the current crisis in South Sudan.

Lueth’s statements regarding the absence of fear in South Sudan are misleading, as evidenced by independent assessments detailing a rapidly deteriorating security situation. The findings of various authoritative organizations illustrate increasing violence, political instability, and the looming threat of renewed civil conflict. The intervention of foreign military forces and active advisories from nations reiterate the critical and escalating crisis facing South Sudan.

Original Source: www.voanews.com