Climate Change’s Impact on Global Water Scarcity: A Study in Unequal Distribution

A recent study in *Nature* indicates that climate change is deepening water scarcity in regions like India while benefitting others such as Nigeria. The unequal distribution of water resources necessitates tailored adaptation strategies, particularly as conflicts may escalate in politically sensitive areas. The research underscores the importance of data for informed planning and promotes sustainable practices to address the water crisis.

Recent research published in the journal Nature reveals the global disparity in water resources, highlighting the differing impacts of climate change across various regions. While countries like India will experience an increase in water scarcity, nations such as Nigeria and Sudan may witness improvements due to changes in precipitation patterns. However, the ongoing changes could fluctuate over time within the same basins.

The widening water gaps are likely to escalate conflicts and regional tensions, particularly in politically fragile areas. This concern has been echoed in a report by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), which emphasizes the need for region-specific policies to alleviate the pressures arising from resource scarcity.

Quantified data is essential for effective planning and addressing water security challenges. Notably, approximately 93-95% of employment in Nature-Based Solutions aimed at improving water security is found in the Asia-Pacific region, with a substantial portion of this driven by India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), as highlighted in the UNCCD report launched at the 16th Conference of Parties in Riyadh.

While substantial efforts are underway in India, water scarcity remains a significant issue in several cities, raising questions about the sufficiency of current initiatives. The study co-authored by Lorenzo Rosa and Matteo Sangiorgio underscores the need for thorough data analysis to quantify water gaps and predict future scenarios, thus enabling better planning.

A water gap denotes the disparity between available water and demand. The study evaluates these gaps at both the hydrological basin and national levels, utilizing a multi-model approach to assess both past and prospective water conditions across multiple scenarios.

By analyzing a range of climate models, the research captures net water gap projections at a resolution of 30 arc minutes (approximately 50 km at the equator), allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of water discrepancies than broader assessments. The study compares baseline global temperatures to those projected for 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios, revealing that regions like California’s Central Valley and the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India and Pakistan are likely to face increased water deficits as global temperatures rise.

Under the 1.5°C scenario, India is projected to see a water deficit increase of 11.1 cubic kilometers per year, placing it at greater risk than neighboring countries. In contrast, China, benefiting from a more humid climate in its southern regions, will experience a smaller increase.

The research identifies South Asia as the most severely affected region, particularly India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all of which fall under major river basins. The study advocates for the expansion of successful initiatives like the MGNREGS, aiming to create jobs, enhance climate resilience, and secure water resources.

In addition, it emphasizes the need for sustainable agricultural practices and the development of water harvesting systems to alleviate groundwater dependency. Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam in Southeast Asia stand to benefit from increased water availability, while those in the Middle East and North Africa must adopt similar strategies to mitigate rising water stress.

The research acknowledges the limitations of existing models due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and advocates for improved data validation and monitoring in future studies.

In summary, this research highlights the unequal global distribution of water and the exacerbating effects of climate change on water scarcity. While certain regions are experiencing heightened scarcity, others may see improvements, necessitating tailored adaptation strategies. Success in water management initiatives, particularly in South Asia, underscores the importance of sustainable practices and detailed data analysis for future planning. As the dynamics of water availability continue to evolve under climate change, proactive measures will be critical in securing water resources and mitigating potential conflicts.

Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in