Abiy Ahmed’s Desperate Gamble: War against Eritrea as a Political Distraction

The article discusses the growing concerns regarding a possible Ethiopian invasion of Eritrea under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Analysts suggest Abiy’s internal struggles may lead him to initiate conflict as a distraction from domestic turmoil. The article highlights Ethiopia’s dire economic conditions, political fragmentation, and ethnic tensions, indicating that any aggression toward Eritrea could have catastrophic regional consequences.

In recent weeks, there has been an escalation of concern regarding a potential Ethiopian military invasion of Eritrea, primarily fueled by the Ethiopian government’s war propaganda. Under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, state media have emphasized the necessity for military access to a naval base, particularly targeting Eritrea’s strategic port of Assab. Analysts from Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia express trepidation over this possible aggression.

Despite some commentators dismissing the likelihood of an invasion due to Abiy’s internal conflicts, an in-depth examination reveals a precarious situation. Notably, leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) see an escalating likelihood of conflict among fractured TPLF factions, especially with Abiy’s initiative to integrate numerous Tigrayan soldiers into the Ethiopian military. The regime faces multiple crises that threaten its stability, likened to a failing “house of cards,” suggesting war might be viewed as a desperate survival tactic rather than a strategic decision.

Abiy’s motives appear to diverge from a genuine aspiration for military success. The emergent conflict seems more like a calculated distraction to extend his political tenure, deflecting public focus from the acute domestic disarray. Ethiopia currently grapples with severe economic challenges, stemming from rampant inflation, significant foreign currency shortages, and the depletion of vital financial assistance, exacerbated by reduced US aid.

Political fragmentation is rampant, underscored by the ongoing Tigray conflict, which remains unresolved. The noteworthy rise of militias, such as Fano in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in the Oromo region, has further destabilized Abiy’s control over vast territories, confining him mainly to Addis Ababa for safety.

Ethnic tensions have also surged, leading to substantial casualties and displacement since 2018, rendering regions desperate for humanitarian aid. Furthermore, Abiy’s intensifying use of drone warfare, with support from foreign entities, has raised alarm among international observers and organizations, contributing to a significant rise in violence against citizens.

Under these dire circumstances, Abiy may perceive the initiation of conflict with Eritrea as a strategic distraction, assuming Eritrea will mainly adopt defensive stances. This perceived approach could allow Abiy to evade accountability for Ethiopia’s domestic issues, transferring blame onto Eritrea.

However, this course of action is perilous and exhibits shortsightedness. It is essential for the international community to remain alert to these developments, recognizing the potential destabilizing effects of Abiy’s gamble not only on Ethiopia but also on regional peace and stability. Proactive measures to avert further escalation are crucial moving forward, as the repercussions of a war driven by a leader seeking to retain power could be devastating.

In sum, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s potential conflict with Eritrea reflects his desperate bid to divert attention from his government’s internal crises and maintain his political survival. The ongoing domestic turmoil, characterized by economic collapse, political fragmentation, and escalating ethnic tensions, underscores the severity of Ecuador’s situation. Such a gamble not only risks national integrity but poses significant threats to regional stability, necessitating vigilant international scrutiny to prevent an escalation into war.

Original Source: borkena.com