Türkiye – Iran Relations Escalate Following Assad’s Downfall

Following Assad’s collapse, Türkiye has increased its influence in the Middle East, sparking escalated tensions with Iran. Despite agreeing on issues like the Gaza conflict, both nations are competing for regional dominance, leading to warnings and concerns from Ankara against Iranian backing of opposing Syrian groups. The rivalry underscores the complex geopolitical interplay in a post-Assad Syria, emphasizing the strategic betting by both countries on their future regional roles.

The recent geopolitical developments following President Bashar al-Assad’s collapse have markedly affected relations between Türkiye and Iran. Iran’s strategic setbacks have allowed Türkiye to bolster its influence in the Middle East, heightening their rivalry despite shared views on issues like the Gaza conflict and the Palestinian struggle. Ankara has warned Tehran against supporting groups in Syria that oppose the Sunni Islamist-led regime, particularly those among the Alawite and Kurdish communities, fearing an erosion of Iranian influence in the Caucasus.

The power shift resulting from the fall of Assad has redefined the dynamics of Middle Eastern politics. Türkiye, now influential in Syria through Sunni Islamist groups, aims to counter any revival of Iranian power in the region. Both nations, although ideologically distinct, are motivated by their desire to assert regional dominance, often against a backdrop of U.S. military support for Israel, which they both oppose.

Iran has actively engaged with armed factions such as Hamas and Hezbollah, creating a formidable front against Israeli interests. Conversely, Türkiye, a NATO member, has primarily adopted a rhetoric-centered approach towards supporting Palestinian rights, while navigating Western concerns regarding its ambitions in the region. As Iranian support for regional actors poses a challenge, Western leaders generally support Türkiye’s expanding influence as a counterbalance to Tehran.

The transformation of Syria, dominated by Turkish-backed groups, acts as the central point of contention, leading to direct confrontations ignited by Iran’s attempts to restore its influence. Iranian leaders have publicly acknowledged these developments as a significant setback, prompting Ankara to remain vigilant against Iran deploying its historical strategies to disrupt the new order in Syria.

Türkiye’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, has issued warnings against Iranian meddling, expressing concerns over Kurdish alliances with Tehran against Ankara-backed militias. Although there is currently no proof of Iranian military support for Kurdish factions, analysts suggest that such an alignment could emerge. Fidan also cautioned against possible Iranian support for the Alawite community, closely associated with the collapsed Assad regime.

Amid escalating tensions, Iranian officials have responded forcefully to Turkish comments, underlining their dissatisfaction with Ankara’s stance. Tehran expresses apprehension that Türkiye’s actions could destabilize its own territorial integrity, particularly in regions with significant ethnic minorities. The Iranian media has criticized Turkish ambitions as misguided and called for a robust response from its government to counter Turkish maneuvers.

The escalating rivalry between Türkiye and Iran is significantly influenced by the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which has shifted the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Both countries, while sharing concerns regarding U.S. support for Israel, are primarily motivated by their competing interests for regional dominance. As Türkiye bolsters its influence in Syria and beyond, Iranian leadership remains wary, prompting both nations to engage in a complex interplay of warnings and machinations. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for navigators of the evolving political landscape in the region.

Original Source: thesoufancenter.org