The Impending Crisis: Abiy Ahmed’s Desperate Strategy Against Eritrea

This article examines the growing concerns regarding Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s potential aggression towards Eritrea. Analysts highlight the pretext of a naval base and Abiy’s internal crises as motivations for a possible conflict. The situation in Ethiopia is dire, with economic collapse, political fragmentation, ethnic tensions, and an increased reliance on drone warfare, all contributing to the precarious state of Abiy’s regime. The implications of a war with Eritrea could destabilize the region and lead to significant humanitarian crises.

Recent weeks have seen an increase in discussions regarding a potential Ethiopian invasion of Eritrea. Analysts point to state media propaganda, disseminated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and his military officials, that suggests a need for a naval base and sea access, raising alarms about possible aggression toward Eritrea’s crucial port of Assab.

While some observers argue that Abiy’s internal challenges may hinder his ability to engage in a regional conflict, a more profound analysis indicates a dire situation. Leaders of the fractured Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are increasingly considering war amongst themselves, particularly as Abiy attempts to integrate Tigrayan forces into his military by supporting factions aligned with former TPLF military chief Samora Yunis. The cumulative crises threatening Abiy’s regime position it precariously, leading some to liken it to a collapsing “house of cards.”

Abiy Ahmed’s motivations may extend beyond a genuine pursuit of military victory. The impending conflict appears to be a calculated attempt to deflect attention from escalating domestic turmoil and extend his political tenure. Ethiopia’s internal challenges include:

– Economic Collapse: Inflation and severe currency shortages have devastated the economy, reinforced by the depletion of a $5 billion IMF loan and the recent suspension of U.S. aid, exacerbating food and health crises.
– Political Fragmentation and Insurgency: The unresolved conflict with the TPLF is worsening, compounded by the rising power of the Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has resulted in vast areas becoming ungovernable. This insurgency has confined Abiy largely to Addis Ababa due to security concerns.
– Escalating Ethnic Tensions: Ethnic conflicts continue to pose a significant threat to stability, with estimates suggesting hundreds of thousands have died and nearly 10 million displaced since 2018. Over 21 million people require assistance in various regions.
– Use of Drone Warfare: Increasing reliance on drone operations has alarmed both domestic and international observers, including the African Union, due to reports of ethnic violence and attacks against civilians. Abiy’s government risks being perceived as a leading user of drone warfare against its populace.

Given these immense pressures, Abiy may view conflict with Eritrea as a necessary diversion, anticipating Eritrea to adopt a primarily defensive stance. Initiating such conflict could help him deflect international scrutiny from his domestic failures onto Eritrea instead. However, this approach is profoundly risky and short-sighted, posing serious implications for regional stability.

In summary, the potential for conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea represents a desperate gamble by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rooted in an effort to distract from his regime’s mounting internal crises. The significant risks associated with such a conflict extend beyond mere regional instability, carrying the possibility of profound consequences for the wellbeing of millions. The international community must remain alert to these developments and proactively seek to avert escalation of tensions in the region.

Original Source: borkena.com