Fragmentation and Power Shifts in Iraq’s Shiite Political Landscape

Iraq’s political landscape post-2003 has been dominated by Shiite factions but is marked by deep divisions and rivalries exacerbated by external influences from the US and Iran. Muqtada al-Sadr’s rise in the 2021 elections and subsequent resignations demonstrate deepening fragmentation, while the emergence of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani represents a shift towards governance-focused leadership. As Iraq approaches the 2025 elections, the uncertain balance of power continues to evolve amid internal and external pressures.

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq has experienced significant political alterations, marked by the rise of Shiite political parties. However, this dominance is unstable, characterized by intense fragmentation, rivalries, and external influences from both the United States and Iran, leaving Iraq’s future precariously balanced.

The separation within Iraq’s Shiite political community can be traced back to the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Shiite groups, previously persecuted under Sunni-dominated Ba’athist rule, formed after facing bans and exile due to the government’s crackdown on Shiite activists. Following Saddam’s fall, these groups began playing a critical role in shaping Iraq’s political order, yet ideological disparities and power struggles created a fragmented landscape.

While factions aligned with Iran gained strength, others, notably Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sadrist Movement, advocated for greater independence. The Coordination Framework, an alliance of Iran-backed Shiite factions, has been significant in Iraqi politics but suffers from internal divisions, complicating attempts to present a unified front in governance.

The 2021 parliamentary elections showcased these divisions, with al-Sadr’s Movement emerging as a dominant force, winning 73 seats in Parliament. This gain positioned al-Sadr above established players like Nouri al-Maliki, whose coalition faced substantial losses due to widespread dissatisfaction with the political establishment.

Al-Sadr’s appeal, particularly regarding anti-corruption, resonated with disenfranchised youth. Political analyst Dr. Zaid al-Mutlaq noted that al-Sadr’s victory marked a critical setback for Iranian influence in Iraq. Al-Maliki’s coalition suffered a significant decline, while the Fatah Alliance, aligned with Iran-backed forces, also saw reduced representation, indicating a loss of public trust in their political role.

The political fragmentation intensified when al-Sadr ordered his MPs to resign in June 2022, signaling discontent with corruption and a desire to separate from the political system. His exit enabled the Coordination Framework to establish control, allowing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to consolidate authority.

Political dynamics continue to evolve with shifting alliances. For instance, prominent figures such as Nouri al-Maliki’s ally Alia Nassif defected to al-Sudani’s bloc, illustrating the fragmentation of traditional structures. The Coordination Framework now seeks to form a broader alliance, but internal divisions may hinder this effort.

The rise of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has prompted concern within the Shiite establishment. His emphasis on governance and reform has attracted support from both Shiite and Sunni constituents, challenging the entrenched political landscape. While initially assured of support by the Coordination Framework, al-Sudani’s rising popularity may threaten traditional power holders.

As Iraq readies for the 2025 elections, the political landscape remains dynamic, with key figures like al-Sadr and al-Maliki vying for influence. Preparations by Iraq’s three presidencies aim to ensure organized elections, though political parties have yet to launch effective campaign strategies.

While the potential resurgence of the Sadrist Movement looms, internal divisions within the Coordination Framework complicate the situation. The political stakes are significant. Should al-Sadr reintegrate into the political landscape, he could alter the power dynamics, although his rivals maintain their positions within the Coordination Framework.

Experts predict various scenarios as the upcoming elections approach, each capable of reshaping Iraq’s governance. The resurgence of the Sadrist Movement could disrupt the Coordination Framework’s stability. Alternatively, if the Framework resolves its internal issues, it could strengthen its position. Al-Sudani’s governance-focused approach further complicates matters, as his independence from traditional factions may encounter resistance.

Ultimately, Iraq is at a critical juncture. The nation’s future hinges on the ability of political factions to navigate internal rivalries and external pressures, especially amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Political analyst Mujash’e al-Tamimi highlighted that stability in Iraq will depend on finding common ground among factions, despite shifting external influences.

In conclusion, Iraq’s political landscape is characterized by intense fragmentation among Shiite factions, significantly influenced by both internal rivalries and external pressures from the United States and Iran. The dynamics are shifting, particularly with figures like Mohammed Shia al-Sudani rising in prominence alongside al-Sadr’s potential re-emergence. The 2025 elections will be critical in determining whether these factions can unify and effectively govern, or if ongoing divisions will continue to hinder Iraq’s development.

Original Source: shafaq.com