Saudi Arabia Hosts Ukraine Talks: Examining Neutrality and Strategic Interests

Saudi Arabia is set to host US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah, raising questions about its neutrality. With historical ties between Saudi Arabia and the Trump administration, coupled with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s closeness to Putin, skepticism about the meeting’s impartiality arises. The mediation role reflects a complex web of global relationships fundamentally impacting Ukraine’s diplomatic strategy.

Saudi Arabia is poised to host discussions between the United States and Ukraine in Jeddah next week, following a recently contentious meeting involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. By choosing a neutral location for these lower-level talks, the aim is to ease tensions, especially after Zelenskyy’s encounter with Donald Trump. Despite this diplomatic gesture, questions arise regarding the neutrality of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as hosts for these important discussions.

The decision for Jeddah as the meeting venue highlights Saudi Arabia’s appeal as a diplomatic partner for the Trump administration. President Trump’s first official foreign visit in his initial term took him to Saudi Arabia, a nation seeking to elevate its role on the global stage, albeit with a controversial human rights record, including the notorious case of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in 2018.

Trump perceives a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as a significant achievement in his pursuit of a broader peace initiative following the Abraham Accords. These accords aimed at fostering relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain have not significantly enhanced regional security.

Concerns about Saudi Arabia’s neutrality are compounded by Prince Mohammed’s increasing affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The crown prince’s relationship with Putin has reportedly strengthened over recent years, exemplified by involvement in prisoner exchanges between the US and Russia. This connection reportedly began during Prince Mohammed’s 2015 visit to Russia, marking a pivotal shift in bilateral relations.

Analysts Jens Heibach and Luíza Cerioli emphasize the growing importance of the Saudi-Russian relationship, particularly in contexts involving OPEC+. They note Saudi Arabia’s complex stance, having voted in favor of UN resolutions condemning Russia while simultaneously avoiding actions that would significantly jeopardize Russian interests.

Moreover, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Saudi Arabia maintained its cooperative relationships with OPEC+ and notably led a decision to cut oil production, which ultimately benefited Russia’s economy — a move that strained its ties with the United States amid differing responses to the crisis in Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia’s hosting of both Russian and American delegations for peace discussions, despite Ukraine’s absence, diverges from the Biden administration’s diplomatic isolation strategy towards Moscow. This gives rise to skepticism about Saudi Arabia’s impartiality, although the country previously facilitated a substantial peace summit with over 40 nations on the Ukrainian issue.

Trust in Saudi Arabia as a mediator is partly attributed to personal connections within Ukraine’s leadership, such as Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. Orysia Lutsevych from Chatham House indicates that Kazakhstan’s relationships reflect Ukraine’s broader strategy of collaboration with nations in the Global South, aiming to counterbalance perceived Western dominance.

Furthermore, Lutsevych observes that Saudi Arabia’s significant agricultural investments in Ukraine indicate a pragmatic interest in these discussions. She warns, however, that while Saudi Arabia may be facilitating dialogue, the overarching risk for President Zelenskyy lies in unpredictable shifts in American policy, particularly with Trump’s influence — a reality that transcends the choice of meeting location.

In conclusion, while Saudi Arabia’s role in hosting talks between the US and Ukraine may seem as a neutral diplomatic gesture, underlying complexities regarding its relationships with both Russia and the Trump administration must be carefully weighed. The hosting of the talks highlights the nuanced balance that Saudi Arabia strives to maintain on the global stage. As the situation evolves, the involvement of key figures and the strategic interests at play will remain critical to the discussions’ outcomes.

Original Source: www.theguardian.com