Escalating Tensions in South Sudan: The 2018 Peace Agreement at Risk

Tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar are escalating, threatening the 2018 peace deal. The South Sudanese army has surrounded Machar’s home amid high-profile arrests of his allies. Analysts warn that continued infighting risks destabilizing the country further, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis experienced by millions. International responses call for immediate dialogue and adherence to ceasefire agreements.

Tensions are escalating once more between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, leading to a series of high-level arrests and dismissals of political and military figures. The South Sudanese army has reportedly surrounded Machar’s residence in Juba, which raises concerns over the stability of the precarious peace established by the 2018 agreement following previous civil unrest.

Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has faced significant internal conflict stemming from political fragmentation and ethnic divisions, primarily between the Dinka and Nuer groups. The situation deteriorated into a civil war in 2013 following Kiir’s dismissal of Machar and key cabinet members, thus initiating violent clashes that have been marked by deep-rooted animosities.

The 2018 Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) sought to end the hostilities, uniting respective factions and instituting various political reforms. However, key elements of the agreement, including the establishment of a unified army and preparations for elections, have yet to be implemented, with violence persisting in multiple regions.

Renewed conflict has emerged in Upper Nile following unrest linked to government disarmament efforts, with fighting reported between the South Sudanese army and local armed groups. Such hostilities have resulted in civilian casualties and injuries to United Nations peacekeepers, raising alarms about the potential for broader instability.

In response to the rising tensions, Kiir has executed arrests of political allies of Machar, which has led to accusations of eroding confidence in the peace process. Statements from SPLM/IO leaders express concerns that the government’s actions jeopardize the peace agreement, highlighting the precariousness of the political climate.

International reactions include calls for dialogue from Kenya’s President William Ruto as well as condemnation of the violence from IGAD and various embassies. They emphasize the need for all parties to adhere to ceasefire agreements and refrain from further escalations.

Political analysts warn that ongoing strife might undermine the recently signed peace deal, delay essential constitutional reforms, and hinder preparations for elections initially planned for December. With over 7.6 million individuals currently facing food insecurity, the humanitarian situation remains dire, necessitating immediate action to avoid further deterioration.

The rising tensions in South Sudan, characterized by high-profile arrests and continued violence, pose a significant threat to the 2018 peace agreement. The historical context of ethnic conflict and political rivalry between Kiir and Machar underlines the fragility of the situation. International demands for restraint and dialogue highlight the urgency of addressing underlying issues to prevent a resurgence of civil war and humanitarian crises in the nation.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com