Eritrea-Ethiopia Conflict: Rising Tensions and Prospects for War

Current predictions strongly indicate an impending conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, following a steep decline in their diplomatic relations. General Jobe has warned of military escalations and outlined two potential motivations for war, while also highlighting the possibility of foreign intervention. Historical contexts reflect past failures in managing relations, culminating in renewed tensions after short-lived diplomatic efforts.

Recent predictions by political and military leaders underscore a rising likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, following a notable decline in their previously amiable relationship. The deterioration, occurring over a span of fewer than three years, raises questions regarding the underlying causes, which remain ambiguous to the public.

General Abebe Teklehaymanot, commonly known as Jobe, and a former commander of the Ethiopian Defense Force, has voiced concerns about an inevitable war between the two countries. In an interview, he asserted that various indicators suggest escalating tensions, evidenced by military mobilizations and mutual accusations from both nations regarding war-driven sentiments.

Jobe pointed out that the potential conflict’s objectives will play a critical role in determining its outcomes. He identified two primary motivations for a possible war: the desire to seize Assab, a strategic port close to Ethiopia, and the aim to dismantle the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), led by Isaias Afwerki, which aligns with a regime change agenda favored by some Eritrean factions.

The geopolitical implications of such a conflict are concerning, as Jobe anticipates intervention from global powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, each pursuing their strategic interests. Reflecting on historical events, he lamented the missed opportunity to neutralize the PFDJ during the 1998–2000 conflict, revealing deep-seated divisions within the Ethiopian leadership at that time.

He criticized the subsequent decision to permit Eritrea to restore its military strength after the 2000 war, a period characterized by a tenuous state of “no peace, no war” that persisted until normalization efforts by Abiy Ahmed in 2018. However, these diplomatic strides have unraveled within three years, returning the nations to a state of hostility, with Tigray potentially becoming the primary conflict zone if a war ensues between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia is increasingly perceived as imminent, as highlighted by General Jobe. With two primary motivations for war identified and the potential for foreign intervention looming, the geopolitical landscape surrounding this regional tension remains volatile. Historical failures and recent diplomatic collapses paint a concerning picture of the relations between these nations, emphasizing the need for vigilant analysis and strategic foresight.

Original Source: borkena.com