Egypt’s Strategic Blueprint for Gaza: Implications for Hamas and Governance

Egypt’s 91-page plan for Gaza’s future includes a $53 billion budget for reconstruction but does not specifically mention Hamas. Governance will transition from a non-partisan committee to the Palestinian Authority over five years. Despite being excluded from the document, Hamas remains a pivotal entity in Gaza’s politics, with experts noting that no governance can succeed without its agreement.

Egypt has proposed a comprehensive 91-page plan for the future of Gaza during an Arab League summit in Cairo, focusing on a $53 billion budget for reconstruction following the devastation caused by a 15-month Israeli conflict. Notably, the document does not explicitly mention Hamas, the group that has controlled Gaza since 2007. The plan outlines a five-year reconstruction timeline, beginning with a non-partisan technocratic committee to oversee governance, ultimately transitioning to full control by the Palestinian Authority (PA).

During the first six months following the conflict, governance in Gaza will be executed by this committee, administered under the Palestinian Authority. Following this period, the PA is expected to re-establish its authority in Gaza. While Hamas is not directly addressed in the proposal, its significance remains central to the territory’s future. Analyst Qossay Hamed emphasized that “nobody will rule Gaza without Hamas’ agreement,” indicating the group’s influential role in any governance model.

Despite being omitted from the plan, Hamas has expressed support for the proposed initiative, indicating its alignment with broader Arab efforts to create an alternative governance strategy. Although the group’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, is likely to remain intact, Hamas officials have stated they are not interested in direct administrative control. Rather, they see themselves primarily as a resistance movement, focusing on their military stance rather than governance.

Within the proposal, Egypt recognizes that the existence of multiple armed Palestinian factions remains a complex issue. The Arab League highlights the necessity of a credible political process, ultimately aimed at restoring Palestinian rights and establishing a state, which they propose would address underlying causes of resistance activities. Analysts contend that as long as external support continues for Israel, Palestinian resistance groups like Hamas may continue to exist.

The rebuilding plan also incorporates international oversight, suggesting the potential deployment of international peacekeeping forces to aid stability and governance. Hamed stresses the crucial role Hamas will play, stating that any external efforts to administer Gaza will require collaboration with the group. Although they may reduce their visibility in governance, Hamas is unlikely to abandon its armed presence.

For the PA to regain legitimacy in Gaza, it must first cultivate public support, an uphill task in light of their perceived ineffectiveness. As discussions of a transitional government arise, the prospect of new political structures led by former members such as Mohammed Dahlan is being considered. However, skepticism remains about the viability of these initiatives given public sentiments.

Various prominent figures may emerge as unifying leaders, with Marwan Barghouti being highlighted as a potential candidate possessing widespread support across political factions. Analysts suggest that the current Israeli administration’s disinterest in fostering strong Palestinian leadership could hinder prospects for achieving lasting governance reforms in Gaza, solidifying the region’s complex political landscape.

Egypt’s post-war Gaza plan presents a multi-faceted approach for Gaza’s reconstruction and governance while notably excluding Hamas. The dynamics highlighted indicate that while Hamas is sidelined in official plans, it remains an important player in Gaza’s political landscape. The proposal signals a transition back to PA governance, yet recognizes the necessity of Hamas’ acceptance in any new political arrangement. The interplay of international involvement and local governance structures poses challenges that will demand a collaborative approach to achieve stability in the region.

Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net