Brazil’s Cocoa Market Potential: A Pathway to 13% Global Market Share by 2030

A study by Instituto Aya reveals that Brazil could capture 13% of the global cocoa market by 2030, generating up to $2.3 billion and creating 300,000 jobs. Despite challenges like limited access to credit and pest threats, Brazil’s competitive advantages in cocoa supply chain integration, industrial capacity, and successful agroforestry practices provide a strong foundation for growth.

Brazil, once the predominant cocoa producer in the 1980s, has the potential to regain a significant share of the global cocoa market, according to a study by Instituto Aya. The research suggests that Brazil could capture 13% of the global cocoa market, generating revenues up to $2.3 billion by 2030 and creating approximately 300,000 jobs. Even conservative estimates forecast $1.5 billion in revenue by 2030, with a 9% market share.

Brazil possesses a competitive advantage throughout all stages of the cocoa supply chain, aided by organizations such as Embrapa and Ceplac. The country is a major producer of cocoa seedlings and has established expertise in agroforestry cocoa cultivation, utilizing multiple tree species to enhance growth conditions. Additionally, the use of degraded pastureland offers significant expansion opportunities in cocoa production.

However, challenges such as limited access to credit hinder expansion. Current Central Bank data indicates a meager 0.05% of agricultural credit in Brazil is allocated to cocoa, alongside low productivity levels and threats from pests. Integrating cocoa cultivation into forest restoration projects and agroforestry systems could present potential pathways for growth, though federal legislation is currently lacking.

Brazil’s cocoa industry also exhibits significant industrial potential, with established processing sectors that can be further developed. Companies like Barry Callebaut, Cargill, and others play a crucial role, alongside smaller firms providing direct links to cocoa farmers. The report highlights Brazil’s dual role as a leading chocolate supplier and consumer, emphasizing the need for strategic investment to leverage this advantage.

To address sector challenges, the study recommends creating favorable credit conditions, such as lower interest rates and more manageable repayment terms. Encouraging cocoa processors to enter forward contracts with farmers could enhance financing options for small producers while strengthening rural technical assistance programs and boosting investments in mechanization and biotechnological innovations is critical for improving productivity and pest resistance in Brazilian cocoa plantations.

The findings of the study indicate a promising future for Brazil in the global cocoa market, highlighting its unique advantages and potential for growth. Nevertheless, addressing key challenges such as access to credit and enhancing productivity through modern techniques is essential. Targeted investments and supportive legislation could significantly enhance Brazil’s position and sustainability in the cocoa industry, allowing it to reclaim its status as a major player.

Original Source: valorinternational.globo.com