Lake Chad: Misconceptions and Challenges Amid Climate Change

Research indicates that Lake Chad is not shrinking; instead, its water volume has increased since the 1980s. Although rainfall has intensified, leading to flooding risks, ongoing conflicts hinder adaptation efforts. The Lutheran World Federation is working to support local communities through sustainable practices. While traditional adaptation methods are under pressure from climate changes, initiatives are underway to improve resilience in the context of instability.

Recent studies indicate that Lake Chad is not shrinking as often believed; in fact, the lake’s water volume has increased since its lowest point in the 1980s. Enhanced rainfall alongside the historic droughts raises the risk of flooding in the region. Ongoing conflicts complicate adaptation efforts for local communities grappling with the effects of climate change. The Lutheran World Federation is addressing these challenges through sustainable agricultural practices in the Lake Chad Basin.

Positioned in the Sahel at the southern edge of the Sahara, the Lake Chad Basin spans approximately 2.5 million square kilometers, covering 8% of Africa. Around three million individuals live near Lake Chad, with 49 million more relying on its resources. Lake Chad’s water levels are influenced by a unique closed drainage system, receiving inflows from rivers like the Chari and Logone, depending heavily on rainfall in the catchment area.

Covering 25,000 square kilometers in the 1960s, Lake Chad diminished significantly during the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s, shrinking to just 2,000 square kilometers by the mid-1980s. As water levels fluctuated drastically over decades, the lake divided into northern and southern sections due to a central vegetated barrier. Although climate change initially appeared to threaten the lake, recent findings indicate a more complex relationship between water levels and climate patterns.

Since the 1990s, rainfall has been on the rise in the Sahel, with a 2020 study confirming that Lake Chad’s surface area had stabilized over the previous two decades. Current data from 2024 suggests the lake’s water surface area peaked at 18,800 square kilometers. Nonetheless, the northern section has not fully rebounded due to various factors, including changes in river inputs and increased vegetation affecting water flow.

The risk of flooding has become increasingly pronounced due to climate change. The intense rainfall, primarily concentrated in short periods, has resulted in severe flooding. Mahamat-Nour observes, “Since 2020, we have seen very wet years due to high temperatures causing more intense rains, increasing flood risks in the Lake Chad basin.” Past droughts have further hardened the soil, raising susceptibility to flooding as erratic rainfall occurs.

The Lake Chad Basin faced significant flooding in both 2022 and 2024, prompting displacement of millions and affecting agricultural sectors. A study attributed the 2022 floods to climate change, revealing that rainfall was 80 times more likely due to climate factors. Projections suggest that such flooding could occur every 2-5 years, urging the Lake Chad Basin Commission to strengthen management protocols and infrastructure.

Communities have traditionally adapted to fluctuating water levels by diversifying agricultural practices, but climate unpredictability poses new challenges. Project manager Kabunga highlights farmers’ struggles with erratic rains that complicate planning. The emergence of conflict, particularly from armed groups like Boko Haram, significantly erodes local adaptation strategies.

The Lutheran World Federation’s “Gender Transformative Climate Adaptation” project seeks to bolster resilience among communities with sustainable agriculture, water management, and conflict resolution tactics. Notably, the initiative supports the cultivation of various tree species which promote soil restoration and combat desert encroachment. Additional strategies include introducing drought-tolerant seeds and improving irrigation systems to address water scarcity concerns.

Ultimately, enhancing local adaptive capacity is essential for the region’s future stability and food security. Experts assert that comprehensive approaches are critical in addressing climate-related risks for planning stabilization efforts. Addressing the intertwined challenges of climate change and conflict will be imperative to unlock Lake Chad’s potential for sustainable livelihoods.

Lake Chad’s water levels are stabilizing rather than declining, debunking long-held beliefs about its shrinking status. Increased rainfall has raised flooding risks, compounded by regional conflict challenges. Communities are adapting through varied agricultural techniques, yet unpredictability remains a significant hurdle. Initiatives by organizations like the Lutheran World Federation aim to enhance resilience amidst these ongoing issues, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches to address climate-related vulnerabilities.

Original Source: news.mongabay.com