Examining Post-Assad Lebanese-Syrian Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

The article explores the potential for improved relations between Lebanon and Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. It highlights new leaderships, key political challenges, and risks associated with sectarian divides and regional instability. Factors such as Hezbollah’s diminished role, Israeli aggression, and unresolved bilateral issues pose challenges to any forthcoming cooperation between the two countries.

Lebanon and Syria share deeply interconnected destinies, and with new leaderships in both nations—the interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun alongside Prime Minister Nawaf Salam—there exist opportunities for a bilateral reset. However, sectarian fragmentation and regional conflicts pose significant risks to peace and stability in this evolving relationship.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, sparked jubilation among many Lebanese due to Syria’s long history of military intervention in Lebanon, beginning with its occupation post-1976. Although Assad’s removal was largely welcomed, it represented a crucial setback for Hezbollah, which relied heavily on Syria as its conduit for Iranian support and weaponry.

While the emerging Syrian government is reportedly anti-Hezbollah, concerns linger about potential sectarian tensions, especially given Hezbollah’s declining influence following Assad’s departure and the recent loss of its main political and military support in Syria. The group’s socio-political standing in Lebanon has also been challenged by local opposition due to its extensive involvement in the Syrian civil conflict.

As Hezbollah adjusts to the new geopolitical landscape, it confronts hostility from groups in Syria that are empowered by Assad’s ouster. This changing dynamic includes shifting allegiances and partnerships among extremist elements, which may target both Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army.

Despite differing perspectives among Lebanese political factions regarding Syria’s future, calls for collaboration are necessary given the intertwined fates of both countries. Current segments of the Lebanese populace remain uncertain about the implications of post-Baathist governance in Syria, especially with Israeli activities escalating tensions in the broader region.

Specific issues complicating Lebanese-Syrian relations include the handling of frozen Syrian assets in Lebanese banks and strategies for repatriating Syrian refugees, which demonstrate the complexities of economic and humanitarian considerations. Recent violent encounters along the border highlight the fragile nature of these relations amid increasing regional tensions and security challenges.

The Israeli presence and military actions in the region significantly influence Lebanon-Syria relations. It is critical for both nations to restore territorial control and establish cohesive governance structures to prevent future fragmentation. Cooperation and dialogue are essential to avoid repeating historical failures and to foster stability in both countries.

Although the new Lebanese administration appears inclined toward cultivating a positive relationship with Syria, enduring regional conflicts likely hamper progress. The effectiveness of the new Syrian leadership in addressing Israeli aggression will determine the potential for a productive bilateral relationship. As tensions rise, Lebanese and Syrian authorities must navigate these complexities to achieve a lasting reconciliation.

In summary, the intertwined futures of Lebanon and Syria hinge on the capabilities of their new leadership to address the ongoing sectarian and geopolitical challenges. While pathways for constructive engagements exist post-Assad, the resurgence of extremist groups, Israel’s aggressive policies, and unresolved bilateral issues complicate this relationship. It is essential for both nations to collaborate to maintain stability and avoid further conflict.

Original Source: www.newarab.com