China’s Climate Commitments at Risk Following 2024 Emission Data

China has missed a key climate target for 2024, as emissions slightly increased despite significant renewable energy gains. The nation’s carbon intensity fell short of official targets, raising concerns about its commitment under the Paris Agreement. Analysts warn of challenges in meeting future carbon reduction goals with ongoing reliance on coal and industrial growth.

China has fallen short of a crucial climate objective in 2024, with official data revealing a marginal increase in emissions despite significant renewable energy advancements. This setback positions the country away from a pivotal commitment under the Paris climate agreement, confirming its status as the world’s largest emitter.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the carbon intensity—a measure of carbon emissions per unit of GDP—declined by 3.4 percent last year, below the targeted decline of 3.9 percent. The findings also indicate that China is lagging in achieving its goal of reducing carbon intensity by 18 percent from 2020 levels by 2025.

The data suggests a slight rise in overall carbon emissions, although this increase is considerably lower than previous years. Experts are now questioning if China may have already reached its peak emissions ahead of its target in 2030. Despite this, significant challenges remain for achieving a 65 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, according to Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Myllyvirta stated, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in the period 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target. This is a key test of China’s commitment to its pledges under the agreement.”

Although it is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, China has also made strides as a leader in renewable energy. The country aims to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. Some analysts speculate that due to slowed economic growth and rapid renewable installations, emissions may have stabilized.

However, determining the peak emissions will require additional years of data and will likely be assessed retrospectively. Analyst David Fishman mentioned that regardless of whether emissions have peaked or plateaued, he does not perceive the necessary conditions for a significant reduction by 2030.

The growth of China’s carbon-intensive industrial sector poses a substantial obstacle to achieving its climate aspirations, as noted by Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at Ember. Yang observed, “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure.”

The NBS report highlighted a 4.3 percent increase in total energy consumption from the previous year, with coal accounting for over half of China’s energy supply, although renewable energy usage surged as well. Yang commented that China is nearing a point where all additional electricity demand will be met by renewable sources, indicating a decline in coal utilization thereafter.

Beijing is expected to unveil details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which may present updated emissions and energy targets. Additionally, the country has plans to submit new emissions targets under the Paris Agreement by February, despite missing the initial deadline. UN officials anticipate that most countries will finalize these Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) this year.

In summary, China faces significant challenges in meeting its climate goals, having missed its 2024 carbon intensity targets while experiencing a slight rise in emissions. Continued dependence on coal and the rapid pace of industrial growth hinder progress towards ambitious climate commitments. The upcoming Five-Year Plan and updated emissions targets will be crucial in determining the nation’s path forward in reducing carbon emissions and achieving its long-term climate objectives.

Original Source: www.news-journal.com