China Fails to Meet Key Climate Target Amidst Rising Emissions

China missed a critical climate target in 2024, with a slight rise in emissions due to coal dependence, despite strong renewable energy growth. The NBS reported a 3.4 percent reduction in carbon intensity, below the target of 3.9 percent. Analysts are skeptical about China’s ability to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement, emphasizing urgent reforms in energy infrastructure for sustainable progress.

China failed to meet a crucial climate target in 2024, as emissions saw a slight increase, primarily due to its continued reliance on coal, despite significant growth in renewable energy capacities. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), carbon intensity decreased by only 3.4 percent, falling short of the established goal of 3.9 percent, which places the nation behind in its objectives for reducing carbon emissions by 18 percent from 2020 levels by 2025.

The data disclosure indicates that China, being the largest emitter globally, is not progressing as expected on its commitments under the Paris Agreement. Although there was a modest rise in carbon emissions compared to the previous year, analysts are debating whether China may have peaked emissions earlier than the defined 2030 target. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, remarked that meeting the pledge to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent of 2005 levels by 2030 will be incredibly challenging, necessitating a 22 percent fall in intensity between 2026 and 2030.

Furthermore, while China aspires to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060, the rapid growth of its carbon-intensive industrial sector is hindering progress. Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, highlighted that the industrial expansion is escalating energy demand at a rate that surpasses the deployment of clean energy solutions. He emphasized that reforms in the energy market and the enhancement of clean energy infrastructure are imperative to prevent industrial output growth from compromising a sustainable energy future.

Notably, total energy consumption in China rose by 4.3 percent compared to 2023, with coal constituting over half of the country’s energy supply amidst a marked increase in renewable energy utilization. As energy demands continue to grow, analysts predict that China is nearing a pivotal point where future electricity demands could be met entirely through renewable resources, leading to a potential decline in coal usage as incremental demand is satisfied by solar and other renewables.

In anticipation of forthcoming climate policies, Beijing is set to unveil details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, which is expected to include new emissions and energy objectives. Additionally, China had intentions to submit updated emissions targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the Paris Agreement, though it missed the initial deadline. Nevertheless, United Nations officials anticipate that most countries will present their NDCs within this year.

In conclusion, China has fallen short of a vital climate goal for 2024, with a minor increase in emissions despite advancements in renewable energy. The nation struggles with its heavy reliance on coal and rapid industrial growth, raising questions about its commitment to meet its Paris Agreement obligations. Analysts stress the necessity for substantial reforms to the energy market to achieve sustainable energy progress and meet future emissions targets.

Original Source: www.france24.com