Egypt’s Evolving Role in the Palestinian Cause Amid Gulf Influence

Egypt has historically led the Arab narrative on Palestine, but since the 2013 coup, its role has diminished as Gulf states gained influence through financial support. These states, in alignment with Egypt and Israel, seek to eliminate Hamas and reshape governance in Gaza. However, displacement of Palestinians into Egypt poses significant threats to national security and regional stability. Ultimately, Gaza’s situation remains crucial to Egypt’s geopolitical position.

Since the Camp David Accords of 1978, Egypt has held significant influence over the Palestinian cause as the primary Arab state. However, after the military coup in 2013, Egypt’s regional role diminished and the economy weakened, allowing Gulf states to gain prominence by providing financial support to Cairo. Consequently, the traditional Arab leadership on Palestinian issues has shifted towards nations like Saudi Arabia.

Following the normalization of relations between Israel and several Gulf nations through the Abraham Accords, these states have emerged as substantial players in the Palestinian issue, surpassing the historical roles of Egypt and Jordan. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have notably increased their influence by funding Gaza and mediating between Israel and Palestinian groups.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s military coup reshaped Egypt’s foreign policy to prioritize personal interests and those of influential Gulf supporters, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This shift has complicated Egypt’s traditional stance on Palestine, as leaders now see the Palestinian group Hamas as a threat aligning with the Muslim Brotherhood.

In the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Egypt has aligned interests with Israel and Gulf states, aiming to eliminate Hamas to facilitate a potential new governance model in Gaza led by the Palestinian Authority. This strategy involves tightening control over the Rafah border and isolating Gaza.

Reports have also surfaced regarding proposals related to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt, a plan that Sisi has vocally opposed. Displacing Palestinians into Sinai could create demographic challenges and threaten Egypt’s national security, while also potentially undermining the long-held aspiration for a sovereign Palestinian state.

The possibility of mass refugee displacement raises significant concerns for Egypt’s political stability and reputation in the Arab world, as it would render Egypt complicit in erasing the Palestinian cause. Additionally, large-scale relocations could exacerbate Sinai’s economic struggles and potentially foster long-term regional tensions.

Amidst these uncertainties, Sisi’s hold on power beyond 2030 remains precarious. Although the military generally supports Sisi, future constitutional amendments to extend his rule may depend on external support, notably from Gulf allies and the United States. The degree to which Sisi is willing to endorse plans for Palestinian displacement remains contentious in Egyptian political discourse.

Ultimately, Gaza’s fate is intricately linked to Egypt’s national security, regional interests, and future demographic composition. Cairo must strive to retain its influential role concerning Gaza while mitigating any shifts in regional power dynamics that could arise from external interventions.

In summary, Egypt’s evolving relationship with the Palestinian issue is marked by the influence of Gulf states and shifting geopolitical dynamics. President Sisi faces complex challenges regarding Palestinian displacement, national security, and potential political changes. The future of Gaza directly impacts Egypt’s regional standing, demographic stability, and security. Egypt must balance its role as a key mediator while addressing the ambitions and pressures from Gulf allies and other international players.

Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net