Implications of Bashar al-Assad’s Ouster for Syria and Regional Powers

The recent ousting of Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria has ushered in a new era marked by the dominance of disparate armed factions, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Turkey’s influential role aims to suppress Kurdish forces while Iran and Russia’s support for Assad has significantly waned. The situation complicates prospects for a coherent governance structure, emphasizing the necessity for Syrian factions themselves to initiate the rebuilding of their state amidst complex regional dynamics.

On Sunday, while enjoying coffee at a café run by a Syrian expatriate in the UK, I inquired about the recent development regarding the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. He expressed hopefulness, noting that he and the seven million Syrians displaced during the civil war were eager to return home. Reports indicate that Assad and his family have fled to Russia, allowing Syrians to enter previously off-limits areas such as his presidential palace and topple statues of his father, Hafez al-Assad, a former dictator.

Currently, Syria is divided among various factions, each supported to varying extents by major international players, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, the United States, Gulf states, and Israel. The landscape is dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a powerful rebel group that, originating as an affiliate of al-Qaeda, has shifted its focus to toppling Assad and opposing Iranian militias. HTS has established a governance structure in north-western Idlib and joined forces with other militias to further its objectives.

Turkey’s role has been crucial, as Ankara provided essential support to HTS, particularly after the Assad regime rejected Turkey’s attempts at normalization. With a vested interest in eradicating Kurdish forces aligned with the PKK, Turkey seeks to ensure that any emerging Syrian government remains on amicable terms.

Conversely, the removal of Assad is a significant setback for Iran, which now lacks a crucial corridor to the eastern Mediterranean, thereby weakening its support for Hezbollah. Likewise, Russia’s interests have suffered as its backing of Assad was hampered by its conflict in Ukraine, casting doubt on the future of its military bases in Syria.

Efforts to broker lasting peace have repeatedly stalled, as seen in the failed peace talks held in Kazakhstan. The territory’s fragmentation is further accentuated by the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, both of which have gained ground, complicating the potential for unified governance.

In conclusion, the landscape of Syria has dramatically shifted, with Turkey emerging as a major player while Iran and Russia’s influence recedes. The ability of Syrian factions to establish a transitional government will be pivotal in determining the future stability of the region, and it is the responsibility of Syrians themselves, whether they stayed or returned, to forge a new state governed by their aspirations and terms.

The current state of Syria is the result of a decade-long civil war that has led to the disintegration of centralized authority and the emergence of multiple factions vying for control. The civil war, ignited by protests against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, gave rise to a complex web of domestic and international interests, with countries like Turkey, Iran, and Russia playing pivotal roles. The recent overthrow of Assad marks a turning point that could reshape Syria’s political landscape and the regional dynamics in the Middle East. The involvement of external powers further complicates the situation, as they support various factions with differing objectives, establishing a volatile environment that poses challenges for unity and rebuilding.

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad has triggered a significant shift in Syria’s power dynamics, with a potential for Turkey to solidify its influence while Iran and Russia’s roles diminish. The fragmented nature of the opposition, led principally by HTS and bolstered by Turkish support, indicates a challenging path towards stability and peace. As various vested interests continue to clash, the responsibility rests on the Syrians themselves to reconstruct their state in accordance with their collective aspirations, notwithstanding the external pressures that may prevail in the future.

Original Source: theconversation.com