Skepticism Surrounds Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire As Analyst Highlights Key Obstacles

Analyst Bechara Khairallah described the optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon as artificial, stating that significant obstacles, particularly Hezbollah’s armed presence and Iranian concerns, impede any potential agreement. He believes that substantive resolutions will not materialize before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Bechara Khairallah, a prominent analyst and political researcher, shared his insights during an interview with the Saudi news channel Al-Hadath. He expressed skepticism regarding the current initiatives for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, deeming the prevailing optimism as “artificial.” Particularly, Khairallah indicated that any substantive agreement remains unlikely until after the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20. He emphasized that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to facilitate any diplomatic achievements for outgoing President Joe Biden prior to this transition.

Khairallah elaborated on the challenges facing Lebanon in achieving a stable resolution, chiefly citing Hezbollah’s independent military capabilities and political sway. He remarked, “In Lebanon, any stable solution requires the disarmament of Hezbollah—something Iran will never agree to.” This makes reaching an accord extremely challenging as long as Hezbollah remains armed. He also pointed out the disconnect between proposed agreements and actual feasibility, stating, “None of the proposed settlements, particularly the one suggested by Israel, are implementable.”

Further complicating matters, Khairallah noted Iran’s apprehension regarding a ceasefire, fearing it might lead to a subsequent Israeli offensive against its facilities. “The Iranians don’t want to see a ceasefire that ends the war because they know it will pave the way for Israeli progress toward those strategic objectives,” he explained. In conclusion, he remarked that while discussions for a settlement may commence, any tangible agreement is still quite distant, with the prospects for peace in Lebanon remaining bleak.

The complexities surrounding the Israel-Lebanon conflict have persisted for decades, with various factions, particularly Hezbollah, playing significant roles in regional dynamics. The recent ceasefire initiatives come at a time of intense geopolitical shifts, especially with the impending transition of power in the United States. As analysts evaluate the potential for peace agreements, factors such as military influence and diplomatic relationships with Iran significantly impact the viability of proposed solutions.

In summary, Bechara Khairallah asserts that the optimistic narrative surrounding a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is misleading. Critical obstacles, including Hezbollah’s military capabilities and Iran’s strategic interests, hinder the prospect of a successful resolution. Even if negotiations are initiated, Khairallah foresees that any achievable settlement remains a distant goal.

Original Source: www.jpost.com