Expert Insights on Foreign Policy Divergences between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

International relations experts predict stark differences in foreign policy approaches if Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is elected in November 2024. The survey shows significant variance in U.S. participation in international agreements, military aid distribution, and likely cooperation from foreign leaders. While military engagement may remain similar, expectations for changes in climate policies, NATO membership, and trade relations are pronounced, with a consensus favoring Harris’s effectiveness in managing foreign policy challenges over Trump’s.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, international relations (IR) experts have identified significant distinctions in the foreign policy approaches of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. A recent survey conducted by the Teaching, Research, and International Policy Project at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, with assistance from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, gathered insights from 705 IR scholars who anticipate that the November 5 election will have substantial consequences for U.S. foreign policy. The results reveal a consensus among scholars that Harris’s policies markedly differ from those of Trump across several critical areas, including climate change, NATO involvement, nuclear agreements with Iran, trade tariffs, and foreign aid allocation, while indicating that the election’s impact on military engagements will be less pronounced. The survey findings indicate that experts forecast an 80 percent likelihood of a Trump administration withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, contrasting sharply with a mere 4 percent chance under Harris. Similarly, they perceive a 38 percent chance of a U.S. exit from NATO with Trump in power versus just 1 percent with Harris. Regarding nuclear negotiations, there is a 35 percent probability of new agreements with Iran if Harris is elected, compared to only 7 percent under Trump. Trade policies will also differ, with an 80 percent chance of tariff increases under Trump, compared to a 30 percent chance under Harris. On foreign assistance, experts predict a 56 percent chance of increased aid under Harris versus only 20 percent with Trump. When assessing the potential for military aid, the consensus shows a 75 percent likelihood that Trump would boost military assistance to Israel as opposed to a 54 percent chance for Harris. Conversely, there is a 63 percent chance Harris would increase military aid to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia, while experts assign just a 16 percent chance for Trump. Intriguingly, while experts forecast pronounced differences in many areas of foreign policy, they predict less divergence regarding military force deployment abroad, suggesting that the election’s outcome may not significantly alter U.S. military engagement. On a scale of effectiveness in handling foreign policy, Harris is favored overwhelmingly, with 92 percent of scholars expressing confidence in her capability compared to only 8 percent for Trump. This disparity is echoed in assessments of their potential as commanders in chief. Additionally, analysts anticipate that foreign leaders would be more cooperative with a Harris presidency, with 84 percent believing that diplomacy would improve under her leadership. In summary, while certain aspects of foreign military engagement may remain stable, the analysis reveals broad expectations for significant changes in various foreign policy domains depending on who wins the presidency. Ultimately, IR experts stress that the upcoming election will decisively shape the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy for years to come.

The article discusses the differing perspectives of international relations scholars about the foreign policy implications of the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, particularly regarding the candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It highlights a survey conducted by the Teaching, Research, and International Policy Project at William & Mary, which sheds light on the expectations of these scholars concerning various aspects of foreign policy—including U.S. participation in international agreements, military assistance, and overall effectiveness in global matters.

The consensus among international relations scholars is clear: the 2024 presidential election will present distinct foreign policy directions under the potential leadership of Kamala Harris versus that of Donald Trump. While both candidates are likely to maintain certain military engagements, the projected changes in international agreements, trade policies, and foreign assistance will likely have lasting implications for U.S. relations across the globe. Scholars advocate for the significance of the election outcome in determining the effectiveness and cooperation of the United States on the world stage.

Original Source: foreignpolicy.com