Tensions Escalate Once More in the Horn of Africa

Tensions rise once again in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, where past conflicts have resulted in complex challenges for stability. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s push for Red Sea access has exacerbated tensions with Somalia and drawn the attention of Egypt and Eritrea. The involvement of external powers like Turkey and the UAE adds to the region’s complexity, while the global community faces the consequences of potential conflict. Immediate action is needed to de-escalate tensions and prevent humanitarian crises.

Tensions are once again mounting in the Horn of Africa, reminiscent of the turmoil experienced in Ethiopia during the 2020 presidential election in the United States. The conflict between the Ethiopian central government and the Tigray region escalated markedly at that time, leading to a devastating war that persisted for two years. Although a ceasefire agreement was reached in 2022, leaving numerous unresolved issues, stability remains precarious. Particularly troubling is the fracturing of the coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, with civil unrest continuing to simmer in the Amhara and Oromia regions. In the current geopolitical landscape, characterized by a tight U.S. presidential race and numerous global conflicts vying for attention, it is crucial not to overlook the risks inherent in the Horn of Africa. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea have further complicated relations with neighboring states, especially following his negotiations with Somaliland in a bid for maritime access. This initiative has exacerbated Ethiopia’s historically antagonistic relationship with Somalia. At the same time, Egypt’s concerns regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continue to escalate, prompting it to seek new alliances, which includes supplying arms to Somalia. Additionally, Eritrea’s interests lie in keeping its regional neighbors weakened, as evidenced by its recent talks with both Egypt and Somalia. Furthermore, external powers with significant stakes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions are actively engaged. Turkey has re-established its ties with Somalia, while the United Arab Emirates remains allied with Abiy Ahmed. The intricate dynamics of the region, alongside historically contentious terrains, heighten the risk of miscalculations spiraling into broader conflicts. The ramifications of such conflicts will predominantly unfold in Africa, impacting global shipping routes and spurring refugee crises that will challenge recipient nations. The specter of further conflict is particularly daunting. The ongoing civil war in Sudan has garnered insufficient attention despite being identified as the worst humanitarian crisis currently reported, with the looming threat of famine exacerbating the situation. Additionally, Somalia’s instability presents opportunities for militant groups like al-Shabaab, which appears to be strengthening ties with Yemen’s Houthi militants. Given the pressing nature of domestic politics, there is an urgent need for the United States to engage in efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions and preventing the emergence of proxy conflicts that could result in catastrophic humanitarian outcomes.

The Horn of Africa is a region that has historically been fraught with tension and conflict, particularly due to ethnic divisions and historical rivalries. The notable conflict in Ethiopia between the government and the Tigray region escalated into a significant humanitarian crisis, resulting in extensive loss of life and displacement. The 2022 ceasefire agreement marked an important step towards de-escalation; however, unresolved issues, including the status of displaced persons and ongoing civil strife in neighboring regions, continue to threaten stability. The geopolitical interests of both regional and non-regional powers complicate the situation further, as nations vie for influence and control over critical resources, including access to vital shipping routes.

In conclusion, the rising tensions in the Horn of Africa represent a serious threat not only to the stability of the region but also to global peace and security. The interplay between local and foreign interests could result in grave humanitarian consequences, necessitating proactive measures from international actors, particularly the United States, to mitigate risks and foster a sustainable resolution to ongoing conflicts. Failure to address these issues may lead to further destabilization, posing challenges that reverberate globally and profoundly impact human livelihoods.

Original Source: www.cfr.org