Attribution Study Reveals Over 15% Increase in Global Burnt Area Due to Climate Change

A recent attribution study suggests that global burnt area from wildfires has increased by over 15% due to climate change from 2003 to 2019. Climate change influences wildfire prevalence, contributing an annual increase of 0.22%. Major affected regions include Australia, South America, and Siberia, with climate change increasingly affecting fire regimes worldwide. While human activities currently reduce burnt areas, the escalating effect of climate change threatens to overturn this balance in the future.

A new study published in Nature Climate Change indicates that climate change has likely contributed to a more than 15% increase in global burnt area from wildfires between 2003 and 2019. Researchers have observed an annual rise of 0.22% in the correlation between climate change and burnt area, with central Australia recording the highest escalation. As noted by Chantelle Burton of the Met Office Hadley Centre, “Our study demonstrates that when fires do occur, the influence of climate change with drier and warmer weather conditions is increasingly significant.” While previous research has underscored the impact of climate change on fire regimes, quantifying the specific extent of this influence had been elusive. Seppe Lampe from Vrije Universiteit Brussel remarked, “We wanted to quantify the amount of burnt area we could attribute to climate change. It is no secret that climate change is affecting wildfires. However, how much climate change is affecting it, we don’t know. This is what we wanted to answer.” The findings coincide with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC AR6) assessment, which stated that human-induced climate change has likely exacerbated fire weather across inhabited continents. Contrastingly, other studies have reported a decline in global burnt area, particularly influenced by land-use changes in savanna regions. A 2017 study in Science indicated a near 25% decrease globally between 1998 and 2015 due to agricultural expansion. Utilizing global fire-vegetation models, Burton and colleagues examined the effects of climate change along with socio-economic factors on global burnt areas from wildfires, specifically in forests and savannahs. Their analysis revealed that the global burnt area has surged by 15.8% attributed to climate change within the specified period. Regions such as Australia, South America, Western North America, and Siberia emerged as significant fire-prone areas, with notable increases in burnt area—22% in northern Australia, 30% in southeastern South America, 18% in west Siberia, and 15% in western North America—as a direct result of climate change. Additionally, central, western, and northeastern Africa evidenced increases in burnt area due to climate changes of 20.3%, 2.7%, and 12.4%, respectively. The researchers highlighted the growing impact of climate change across 35 of the 43 IPCC regions, with 13 regions exhibiting an annual increase of over 0.5% from 1980 to 2019. In contrast, human activities have contributed to a 19% reduction in the global burnt area. Overall, the study concludes a modest 5% decrease in global burnt area, noting, “For now, human activity has a bigger effect on reducing burnt area than climate change is increasing it. We do find that the effect of climate change is increasing … which implies that in the coming decades, this balance will reverse.” Though the global implications seem minimal, marked changes are evident at the regional level, whereby the effects of climate change surpass those of human activities in several areas like central Australia, southern South America, and west Siberia. The researchers advocate for vigorous climate change mitigation efforts and adaptation strategies to combat escalating fire risks.

The connection between climate change and wildfire intensity has been a focal point of environmental research, especially with increasing evidence pointing to human activities exacerbating these effects. The attribution study discussed in this analysis attempts to quantify the impact of climatic factors on the global burnt area, an area that has been frequently debated in the scientific community. Given the findings from various research efforts, including the works cited within this study, it is crucial to understand how differing regions are impacted uniquely by these changes and how such alterations could challenge existing environmental and land-use policies.

In summary, the attribution study highlights a concerning trend of increasing global burnt areas due to climate change, particularly in regions vulnerable to fire risks. Despite current human activities contributing to a slight overall decline in burnt area, the accelerating influence of climate change indicates a future shift that necessitates comprehensive climate mitigation strategies. The findings underscore the urgent need for proactive adaptation measures to address the evolving landscape of wildfire risks as they correlate with climatic changes.

Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in