An Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape in the Horn of Africa

Egypt has formed a new alliance with Eritrea and Somalia aimed at countering Ethiopia, following rising tensions and territorial disputes. This coalition, solidified through a recent security partnership, highlights deepening divisions in the Horn of Africa, driven by historical grievances, military alignments, and external influences. The alliance potentially exacerbates Somalia’s internal challenges and the broader regional security landscape, particularly with al-Shabab’s resurgence.

A new and alarming alliance is emerging in the Horn of Africa as Egypt strengthens its relationship with Eritrea and Somalia in response to perceived provocations by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This coalition was solidified during a recent meeting in Asmara, Eritrea, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud agreed on a security partnership. The joint declaration emphasized the need to fortify Somali state institutions and prepare the Somali National Federal Army to combat terrorism effectively. This alliance’s formation follows Ethiopia’s controversial lease of a coastal area from Somaliland, a territory that Somalia claims as its own. Ethiopia’s desire to regain access to the Red Sea, coupled with Egypt’s longstanding concerns over Ethiopia’s dam on the Nile River, contributes to increased regional tensions. In the context of Sudan’s ongoing civil war, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are aligned with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, while Ethiopia collaborates with the United Arab Emirates, which supports Sudanese rebel forces. The situation is exacerbated by foreign interests vying for influence along key shipping routes in the Horn of Africa. A notable development includes a military agreement allowing Turkish troop deployment to safeguard Somali waters, alongside the UAE’s aspirations to develop ports in Somaliland. Additionally, allegations have emerged regarding the potential for Somalia to welcome foreign armies into its territory, which some critics assert may escalate internal clan conflicts. Despite previous military collaborations, the backdrop of al-Shabab’s resurgence poses significant threats to stability in the region, compounding concerns about the implications of the Egypt-Eritrea alliance on Ethiopian security and regional peace.

The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa is complex, marked by a series of historical grievances, territorial disputes, and shifting alliances among neighboring countries. Ethiopia’s emergence as a regional power has antagonized Egypt, particularly due to the Nile River’s critical importance for its water supply, which it fears could be jeopardized by Ethiopia’s ambitious dam projects. The recent diplomatic entente between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia marks a significant pivot aimed at countering Ethiopia’s increasing assertiveness in the region. Moreover, the multifaceted dynamic includes the involvement of foreign actors like Turkey and the UAE, reflecting a broader contest for influence over the strategically significant Horn of Africa and its maritime routes.

In summary, the burgeoning alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia signals a critical shift in the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape, presenting grave implications for regional security and Ethiopia’s position. As these countries align themselves against perceived threats from Ethiopia, there is a pressing need for vigilance regarding the potential resurgence of conflict driven by external manipulations and internal discontent amidst Somalia’s ongoing struggle against al-Shabab. The regional dynamics continue to evolve, warranting close observation of military activities and diplomatic initiatives among these fractious states.

Original Source: foreignpolicy.com