The Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Intensity and Frequency: Insights from Recent Studies

A new study reveals that climate change exacerbated Hurricane Helene, increasing rainfall and wind intensity, and experts believe Hurricane Milton may be similarly affected. Human-induced warming leads to more severe storms and inland flooding, raising concerns about future hurricane risks as global temperatures continue to rise.

Recent analyses reveal that human-induced climate change intensified Hurricane Helene, boosting its rainfall by approximately 10% and wind speeds by about 11%. This alarming trend is expected to extend to Hurricane Milton, which is currently threatening the Florida coast. According to the World Weather Attribution (WWA), the warming climate increased Helene’s wind speeds by roughly 13 miles per hour while elevating ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the average. Ben Clarke, a climate researcher at Imperial College London, stated, “Hurricane Helene and the storms that were happening in the region anyway have all been amplified by the fact that the air is warmer and can hold more moisture…” He further explained that rainfall totals during Helene were significantly higher than in a non-warming scenario. The scientists further cautioned that the ongoing combustion of fossil fuels would yield more hurricanes similar to Helene, with potential for catastrophic flooding reaching far into inland areas rather than just coastal regions. It was noted that most fatalities during Helene were due to extensive inland floods rather than wind damage. Helene made landfall with a record storm surge of 15 feet, devastating various regions, leaving millions without essential services, and resulting in over 230 casualties. Meteorological estimates indicated that Helene unleashed in excess of 40 trillion gallons of rain, an unprecedented volume that would have been considerably less severe had climate change not altered the landscape. As Clarke emphasized, “When you start talking about the volumes involved, when you add even just a few percent on top of that, it makes it even much more destructive.” Researchers found that storms with the intensity of Helene, once occurring every 130 years, are now 2.5 times more probable in the region. Although the WWA’s rapid studies are not peer-reviewed, they utilize established methodologies to assess extreme weather events’ causal links to climate change.

The investigation into the impacts of climate change on hurricanes has gained momentum as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe. The WWA, established in 2015, aims to determine the extent of climate change’s influence on extreme weather phenomena. Recent studies reflect the increasing severity of hurricanes, potentially attributable to higher sea temperatures and the capacity of warmer air to retain more moisture.

The studies underscore the significant impact of climate change on hurricane attributes, leading to intensified storms such as Helene and Milton. As climate change continues to evolve, the potential for devastating hurricanes seems inevitable without substantial reductions in fossil fuel consumption. Both Helene and Milton serve as stark reminders of the urgent need for preparedness, resilience planning, and changes in energy systems to mitigate future risks.

Original Source: www.mychamplainvalley.com