Flood and Drought Displacement Risk in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan

This report examines the dramatic rise in internal displacements caused by floods globally, recording over 185 million instances since 2008. Africa saw around 29 million such displacements, with a focus on Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia. It presents a novel flood displacement risk model designed to estimate future movements and informs policy-making. The study reveals a potential risk increase of two to four times compared to current levels under optimistic scenarios, with even graver outlooks under pessimistic conditions. Recommendations for effective strategies and policies against flood-induced displacements are provided.

The report meticulously details the alarming trend of internal displacement caused by floods across the globe, emphasizing that since 2008, there have been more than 185 million documented instances of individuals being forced to move within their countries. Within Africa, approximately 29 million flood-induced displacements were recorded from 2008 to 2022, positioning the continent as the second most impacted region worldwide. This analysis zeroes in on the Horn of Africa, particularly the nations of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, introducing an innovative model developed under the HABITABLE project aimed at quantifying flood displacement risks. This comprehensive model aims to provide calibrated projections of future displacement trends and assists policymakers in crafting effective mitigation strategies. It employs a distinct vulnerability assessment methodology that takes into account direct effects on individuals’ residences and livelihoods, as well as indirect consequences for essential infrastructure and services—elements often overlooked in traditional risk models. Utilizing advanced probabilistic techniques, the model integrates climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic factors to calculate potential displacement triggers. The analysis produces metrics for displacement risk, articulated through indicators such as average annual displacement (AAD) and probable maximum displacement. The findings indicate concerning trends, predicting that AAD may increase by two to four times compared to existing conditions under various climate scenarios. More disturbingly, under pessimistic projections, which include extreme weather events, the risk could escalate significantly, demonstrating a possible ninefold increase specifically for Sudan. These insights underscore the urgency for national and local government strategies aimed at disaster risk reduction, particularly in identifying geographic areas vulnerable to displacement due to recurrent flooding. Ultimately, the report concludes by urging the development of comprehensive policies and proactive strategies that address risks associated with flood-induced displacements, thereby safeguarding the welfare of affected populations.

The topic of flood and drought displacement has gained critical attention as climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of these natural disasters. With millions of individuals forcibly displaced due to floods, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa, it is essential to develop effective models to predict displacement trends. The HABITABLE project seeks to fill this gap by employing an advanced risk assessment framework that not only quantifies displacement but also incorporates a detailed understanding of local vulnerabilities. This enables better-informed decision-making tailored to mitigate the impacts of flood-related displacements.

The analysis presented in the report highlights a significant increase in internal displacements across regions affected by flooding, particularly in the Horn of Africa. The innovative flood displacement risk model developed through this study provides critical insights into potential future movements and emphasizes the necessity for comprehensive policy responses. By employing advanced methodologies to assess vulnerability and risk, decision-makers can better prepare for and mitigate the harsh realities of displacement, ultimately protecting vulnerable populations from the effects of climate-induced disasters.

Original Source: reliefweb.int