Egypt Forges New Alliance with Somalia and Eritrea Amidst Ethiopian Tensions

Egypt is forming a security alliance with Somalia and Eritrea in response to tensions with Ethiopia. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s visit to Asmara for trilateral talks signifies a move towards bolstering regional stability and cooperation against perceived Ethiopian threats. Somalia aims to enhance its security architecture, while Egypt seeks supportive alliances to address its Nile water security concerns stemming from Ethiopia’s dam project. This alliance complicates existing mediation efforts and reshapes the dynamics of regional interactions, particularly concerning territorial integrity.

Egypt is orchestrating a new security alliance with Somalia and Eritrea, a maneuver likely to escalate tensions in the Horn of Africa. On Thursday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi arrived in Asmara, Eritrea, where he met with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who had arrived the previous day. This meeting is intended to discuss the enhancement of bilateral relations and regional stability, culminating in a tripartite summit that will also include Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. Earlier, President Mohamud and President Afwerki engaged in discussions that were reportedly aimed at fortifying each other’s territorial integrity in response to perceived threats from Ethiopia. “The two leaders underscored the imperative of further bolstering the bilateral cooperation of the two sisterly countries in the heavy tasks of the maintenance of the sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence, and unity of Somalia,” stated the Eritrean Ministry of Information. They emphasized that the establishment of a strong nation relies on robust and sovereign institutions, highlighting the need for effective defense and security frameworks. Eritrea has been involved in training Somali National Army troops for several years, but Egypt’s recent involvement has heightened tensions. Egypt has initiated a defense cooperation agreement with Somalia, pledging to train and equip Somali troops, and proposed to send its own forces as part of a new African Union mission. This development follows Somalia’s effort to deliberately exclude Ethiopia from the security framework, citing Addis Ababa’s alleged encroachments upon Somali territory, particularly following Ethiopia’s contentious agreement with the region of Somaliland regarding naval access exchange for independence recognition. Somalia has vocally condemned Ethiopia’s actions in various international platforms, accusing it of illicit arms transfers into its territory while simultaneously announcing intentions to terminate existing treaties involving Ethiopian forces operating within its borders. Meanwhile, Ethiopia raised concerns regarding Egypt’s transfer of arms to Somalia, warning that this could risk these arms falling into the hands of extremist groups such as al-Shabaab. For these three nations, the prospective tripartite alliance embodies distinct objectives. For Somalia, it signifies a bolstered security structure against Ethiopia, now perceived as a direct adversary. For Egypt, this alliance provides a means to reinforce security in the Red Sea and marginalize Ethiopia, particularly with respect to the contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project—viewed by Egypt as a significant threat to its water security. Eritrea appears to leverage this alliance as an opportunistic strategy against Ethiopia, especially following recent geopolitical fallout over their previous military engagements. Turkey’s mediation attempts between Somalia and Ethiopia concerning the Somaliland agreement are now jeopardized by this new alignment, complicating the regional dialogue dynamics. In preliminary discussions prior to the Egyptian summit, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty articulated Egypt’s posture on African and regional matters, underscoring their implications for the continent’s security. Egypt’s strategic interests remain firmly intertwined with safeguarding maritime routes in the Red Sea, a vital artery for the Suez Canal’s economic contributions. Amidst increasing threats in the region, including assaults from Houthi forces, Egypt is justifiably apprehensive regarding Ethiopia’s naval aspirations off the coast of Somaliland. Historically, trilateral dialogues among Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea were aimed at collaborative partnerships, yet this new alignment significantly excludes Ethiopia from future cooperation frameworks.

The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa has been characterized by increasing tensions primarily due to the territorial disputes and historical grievances involving Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea. Egypt’s active pursuit of alliances with Somalia and Eritrea is driven by its strategic interests in countering Ethiopia’s influence, especially concerning the contentious Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which poses a potential threat to Egypt’s water resources. The region has also seen shifts in alliances and military cooperation, particularly as Eritrea has provided training to Somali forces, and Egypt has stepped into the fray with promises of military support. These dynamics are set against a backdrop of Ethiopia’s recent efforts to strengthen ties with Somaliland, further igniting Somali concerns about territorial integrity.

In conclusion, Egypt’s formation of a security alliance with Somalia and Eritrea amid rising tensions with Ethiopia is poised to reshape the political landscape of the Horn of Africa significantly. The implications of this alliance are profound for regional security dynamics, potentially isolating Ethiopia and heightening conflicts over contested territories. As Egypt positions itself to enhance its influence and safeguard its strategic interests, the delicate balance of power in the region continues to evolve, warranting close observation from international stakeholders.

Original Source: nation.africa