Egyptian President al-Sisi Visits Eritrea Amid Rising Regional Tensions

Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has visited Eritrea to discuss the potential formation of a military alliance with Eritrea and Somalia amidst rising regional tensions. The move raises concerns for Ethiopia, whose relations with Eritrea have deteriorated. The ongoing discussions focus on peace and security in the Horn of Africa, set against a backdrop of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project and changing alliances.

President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt has commenced a visit to Eritrea following an invitation from President Isaias Afwerki, amidst escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa. This diplomatic engagement is occurring as Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are exploring the formation of a tripartite military alliance, which has raised apprehensions regarding its implications for regional stability. The discussions are anticipated to center on peace initiatives within the Horn of Africa, security matters concerning the Red Sea, and various bilateral and regional topics. The introduction of this military alliance signifies a pivotal shift in the dynamics of the region. The previously positive relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which had improved post the peace accord led by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018, are currently deteriorating. The cessation of flights and communication channels between Ethiopia and Eritrea indicates a significant diplomatic rift. This proposed partnership involving Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia poses a potential threat to Ethiopia, particularly as its relations with Somalia have also been strained due to recent diplomatic conflicts, including a Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The current geopolitical landscape is particularly ironic, considering Ethiopia’s long-standing role in cultivating relationships with Eritrea and Somalia. Prime Minister Abiy, credited with resolving a long-standing conflict with Eritrea—an achievement that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019—had previously collaborated closely with President Afwerki and former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo. The three leaders previously held frequent dialogues aimed at enhancing cooperative ties in the Horn of Africa. However, Ethiopia now finds itself in a precarious situation. Relations with Somalia have further declined, especially after allegations surfaced regarding Egypt’s military assistance to Somalia, viewed by Ethiopia as a direct challenge to its regional influence. The Ethiopian government has accused Somalia of enlisting foreign support to destabilize the region, cautioning that the situation could escalate if not properly addressed. Adding to the complexities of regional relations is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is now nearing its completion. Egypt has consistently opposed this project, expressing concerns over its potential impact on Nile water availability. Conversely, Ethiopia regards GERD as a critical asset for fulfilling its energy requirements and spurring economic growth. The ongoing military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia, alongside Eritrea, further complicates the already delicate relations within the region. Despite these growing tensions, discussions are ongoing in Asmara, where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud of Somalia are meeting with President Afwerki. These talks aim to address multiple regional issues and seek resolutions to ongoing conflicts. Ethiopia’s standing in the region appears increasingly isolated as Egypt deepens its alliances with Eritrea and Somalia. The suspension of flights and communications between Ethiopia and Eritrea signifies a worrying trend, casting doubts over the current discussions in Asmara and emphasizing the fragile state of their relations. Once a key player in regional peace efforts, Ethiopia is now relegated to a spectator role as new alliances take shape, potentially altering the power dynamics in the Horn of Africa. As President al-Sisi, President Afwerki, and President Mahmoud engage in discussions in Asmara, the uncertainty surrounding Ethiopia’s future role within the region becomes more prominent. The nearing completion of the GERD project, in conjunction with the establishment of military alliances, highlights the multifaceted challenges that lie ahead for the Horn of Africa.

The Horn of Africa is currently experiencing heightened tensions due to evolving geopolitical dynamics among its nations. The formation of a military alliance involving Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia poses significant implications for relations with Ethiopia, a historical player in the region’s diplomatic landscape. Previous positive developments between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated, creating a backdrop of instability that echoes through the diplomatic efforts and military posturing of the involved nations. The ongoing completion of significant infrastructure projects, such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, further complicates the interrelations and power balances among these states, necessitating urgent discussions to mitigate conflict.

The visit of President al-Sisi to Eritrea marks a significant moment in the shifting alliances within the Horn of Africa. With the potential for a tripartite military alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, Ethiopia’s position appears increasingly precarious. The deterioration of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, along with the complexities introduced by the GERD project, underscores the necessity for dialogue and cooperation in addressing regional tensions. The outcomes of the ongoing discussions in Asmara will be pivotal in determining the future stability and diplomatic landscape of the Horn of Africa.

Original Source: addisinsight.net