Study Warns of Irreversible Climate Damages from Overshooting 1.5°C

A recent study highlights that overshooting the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement may lead to irreversible climate damages, such as rising sea levels. The research underscores the urgency of immediate emission reductions to limit peak warming and emphasizes the need for sustainable carbon dioxide removal technologies to prepare for potential higher warming scenarios. Immediate action is imperative as the climate summit approaches.

Recent research published in Nature has found that, even if global temperatures temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement and are subsequently decreased through net-negative carbon dioxide emissions, certain climate damages incurred during peak warming remain irreversible. This study is the result of a three-and-a-half-year research initiative supported by the European innovation program HORIZON2020, which specifically examined various ‘overshoot’ scenarios where temperatures rise above the agreed limit before declining once more. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, the study’s lead author and Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group Leader at the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, emphasized, “This paper does away with any notion that overshoot would deliver a similar climate outcome to a future in which we had done more, earlier, to ensure to limit peak warming to 1.5°C.” He further expanded on the importance of immediate action, stating that minimizing peak warming through substantial emission reductions in this critical decade is essential to curbing climate damages. The research underscores the profound consequences of how high and for how long temperatures could rise. It suggests that achieving global net-negative emissions will mitigate some long-term effects of climatic changes, specifically reducing the projected sea level rise by approximately 40 cm by 2300 compared to scenarios where temperature increases halt without reversing. Joeri Rogelj, a co-author and noted professor at Imperial College London, remarked, “The earlier we can get to net zero, the lower peak warming will be, and the smaller the risks of irreversible impacts,” thereby reinforcing the urgency for countries to submit ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) before the upcoming climate summit in Brazil. Additionally, the paper points out the necessity of establishing a comprehensive capacity for carbon dioxide removal to address potential higher warming scenarios. Significant and sustainable emissions reduction efforts must be complemented by advancing carbon dioxide removal technologies. Gaurav Ganti, another co-author of the study, expressed that sustainability must be prioritized, stating, “There’s no way to rule out the need for large amounts of net negative emissions capabilities, so we really need to minimize our residual emissions.” Finally, the researchers conclude with a unified message stressing that urgent governmental actions on emission reduction cannot be postponed. Schleussner encapsulated this sentiment by highlighting that the endeavor toward achieving net zero emissions must be perceived as an urgent race that requires immediate commitment from all parties involved.

The transition to a low-carbon economy is imperative to mitigate climate change impacts, particularly in light of the Paris Agreement’s set goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C. However, the risks associated with overshooting this temperature limit are significant and may result in irreversible damages to ecosystems and human life. Recent studies, including the one published in *Nature*, provide a comprehensive analysis of these risks, exploring scenarios where temporary excess heating occurs but is subsequently addressed through emissions reductions and negative emissions technologies. Understanding these factors is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders involved in climate response strategies.

In summary, the study emphasizes the critical need for immediate and ambitious emissions reductions to avoid harmful overshoot scenarios related to global warming. The findings indicate that even if peak temperatures can be reduced through net-negative emissions, some damages will be irreversible, reinforcing that careful planning and execution of climate policies are vital. It calls for proactive measures by governments to align their national contributions with the urgent requirements of climate action, ensuring that the race to net zero remains a priority.

Original Source: www.eurasiareview.com