Ensuring Credible Elections in Guinea-Bissau: Addressing Institutional Legitimacy Challenges

On November 24, Guinea-Bissau will hold legislative elections amidst concerns about the legitimacy of electoral institutions following two dissolutions of the National People’s Assembly by President Umaro Embaló. Key bodies such as the National Elections Commission and the Supreme Court are currently lacking legitimacy, inhibiting their ability to oversee the elections effectively. Political negotiations and possible ECOWAS intervention are necessary to foster a credible electoral environment and to resolve ongoing tensions.

Guinea-Bissau is preparing for legislative elections scheduled for November 24, amidst widespread doubts about the legitimacy of key electoral institutions amidst heightened political tensions. President Umaro Embaló’s controversial dissolution of the National People’s Assembly (ANP) has exacerbated the instability, leading to concerns regarding the integrity of the electoral process. Following the dissolution, which occurred for a second time, the ANP remains unable to reform the National Elections Commission (CNE) due to the government’s control over parliamentary leadership, further compounding the crisis. The CNE’s leadership has not been renewed since their mandates expired in April 2022, rendering the electoral commission officially illegitimate. Likewise, the Supreme Court, which plays a critical role in validating electoral candidates and results, is currently dysfunctional. Following the Supreme Court President’s forced resignation, the court lacks the quorum necessary to perform its duties, including reviewing candidacies and overseeing electoral disputes. The interim leadership of the Supreme Court has established a technical committee for candidacy verification, but its effectiveness is under scrutiny due to potential biases and past relationships with the executive. The lack of legitimacy in these institutions raises fears that any opposition candidates could be unjustly disqualified, particularly after President Embaló indicated that certain political rivals would not be his successors. To avert further political upheaval and ensure a credible electoral process, it is essential for President Embaló to engage in dialogue with various stakeholders to restore normalcy within the institutions. Importantly, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should be proactive in mediating conditions for credible elections, possibly by postponing both legislative and presidential elections. This delay would allow time for addressing institutional deficiencies and reconstituting the CNE and Supreme Court, which is crucial for fostering confidence among political actors and averting a legitimacy crisis post-Embaló’s tenure.

Guinea-Bissau has been grappling with significant political instability, particularly following two dissolutions of the National People’s Assembly by President Umaro Embaló. The upcoming legislative elections are clouded by the lack of legitimacy in electoral institutions, specifically the National Elections Commission and the Supreme Court, both of which are essential for a fair electoral process. Concerns revolve around the current political dynamics and the potential for institutional fragility, which has been exacerbated by past conflicts and an inability to reach consensus on institutional reforms.

In conclusion, the potential for a credible electoral process in Guinea-Bissau hinges on the resolution of institutional legitimacy issues within the National Elections Commission and Supreme Court. For a successful election, it is imperative that President Embaló initiates discussions with political entities to restore structural integrity. Additionally, timely intervention by ECOWAS could facilitate the necessary reforms and help prevent further entrenchment of political instability.

Original Source: www.premiumtimesng.com