Testing Egypt-Turkiye Relations: The Libya Crisis Challenge

The rapprochement between Egypt and Turkiye faces its first challenge with the ongoing crisis in Libya surrounding the Central Bank. Following the removal of Sadiq Al-Kabir as governor, tensions have escalated, impacting Libya’s oil supply and economy. Despite historical rivalries, both nations must now collaborate to influence conflicting factions in Libya, focusing on stabilizing the economy and addressing security concerns along the Egypt-Libya border. This situation serves as a crucial test of their newfound diplomatic ties and regional influence.

The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkiye, marked by high-level visits from the leadership of both nations, has been characterized as a significant turning point in their long-standing bilateral tensions. This evolving relationship faces its first major challenge amid the turmoil enveloping Libya’s Central Bank, calling for urgent international mediation in a nation where both Egypt and Turkiye have historically backed opposing factions. The recent removal of Sadiq Al-Kabir, Libya’s central bank governor since 2011, by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh has led to increased instability as Al-Kabir fled to Turkiye, claiming threats from militias loyal to the Tripoli government. His ouster escalated tensions with Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, which, alongside the House of Representatives, has retaliated by halting Libya’s oil output, a crucial resource for the nation’s economy. The subsequent disruption has raised global energy prices and intensified internal conflicts, laying bare Libya’s vulnerability as the nation grapples with economic challenges and rising inflation. The United States has advised banks to refrain from engaging with Libya’s central bank until a stable administrative structure is reinstated, further isolating the nation from the global financial system and jeopardizing the import of vital goods. This scenario poses a substantial risk of economic instability and potential unrest, particularly concerning Egypt’s security interests amid fears of increased border challenges with Libya. Despite their previously oppositional stances, Egypt and Turkiye must now collaborate to influence Libya’s rival factions towards resolving the governance crisis and restoring economic order. Egypt has historically supported Haftar’s forces, while Turkiye has aligned with the Tripoli government, prompting skepticism regarding their ability to cooperate effectively moving forward. Both countries, nevertheless, share significant economic interests in Libya’s reconstruction and must navigate past allegiances in favor of mutual financial and strategic goals. In recent conversations, Presidents El-Sisi and Erdogan expressed a commitment to resolving the Libyan crisis and transforming their bilateral relationship following years of conflict. However, the deeply entrenched geopolitical challenges and historical mistrust among Libyan factions suggest that this endeavor will not be straightforward. Despite these obstacles, the prospect for collaboration could lead to positive developments. The unfolding situation is critical not only for Libya but also for regional stability and the economic future of both Egypt and Turkiye.

The detente between Egypt and Turkiye represents a significant shift in the dynamics within the Middle East, particularly after a decade of tensions. The historical rift has roots in polarized political allegiances in regions like Libya, where both nations have supported rival factions in civil strife. The Central Bank of Libya situation presents an immediate platform for both countries to test their newly established diplomatic relations amid a complex backdrop of local and international interests. With Libya sitting on substantial oil reserves, the economic stakes are high, making the cooperation between these two regional powers crucial for both internal stability within Libya and the broader geopolitical landscape.

The current crisis surrounding Libya’s Central Bank is poised to test the newly forged detente between Egypt and Turkiye. Their ability to transcend historical rivalries in favor of collaborative efforts aimed at restoring order and rebuilding Libya will reflect the durability of their relationship and the efficacy of their diplomatic strategies. By working towards a resolution, both nations not only stand to secure their economic interests but also position themselves as key players in promoting stability within the region. The weeks ahead will be essential in evaluating the potential of this partnership in overcoming past adversities for a common goal.

Original Source: www.arabnews.com