Forecast of Above-Normal Rainfall for Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre has forecasted above-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024, impacting numerous countries including Djibouti, Eritrea, and parts of Sudan and South Sudan. While the forecast reflects patterns seen in previous years, it raises concerns for flooding and highlights the importance of seasonal climate outlooks for decision-making in critical sectors such as agriculture and water resource management.

A forecast of above-normal rainfall has been issued for the Greater Horn of Africa covering the period from June to September 2024. This prediction, announced by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), highlights regions that will be significantly affected, including Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, large areas of Uganda, and parts of South Sudan and Sudan. Historically, the June to September rainy season is crucial for these regions, accounting for over 90% of the annual rainfall in the northern parts and 40% in the southern areas. The anticipated wetter conditions mirror the climatic patterns observed in 1998 and 2010. Dr. Guleid Artan, the Director of ICPAC, noted that there is a notable risk of flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan. As these countries approach this vital rainy season following devastating floods, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and portions of Uganda and Somalia, the seasonal climate outlooks remain critical for informing decision-making in agriculture, health, and water resource management sectors. These forecasts are also integral to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Early Warnings for All initiative, aimed at aiding vulnerable sectors.

The Greater Horn of Africa experiences a vital rainy season from June to September, significantly influencing its climate and economy. This season is essential for agricultural productivity and water resources, often supplying the majority of the annual precipitation in several regions. Therefore, accurate climate predictions during this period hold immense value for local governments, farmers, and disaster management agencies. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) collaborates closely with the WMO in providing seasonal forecasts to support these regions in planning and mitigating adverse weather impacts. The region is prone to climate variability, making accurate forecasting crucial to sustainable resource management and preparedness for extreme weather events such as floods.

In summary, the forecast by ICPAC for above-normal rainfall across a significant portion of the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024 presents both opportunities and risks. With the historical patterns of flooding associated with this climatic scenario, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, it underscores the importance of strategic planning in sectors reliant on climate conditions. Implementing effective measures based on these predictions will be essential in safeguarding lives and livelihoods in the region.

Original Source: wmo.int